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2018 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Division 1 Team Ratings

Team Rating Estimates

Team ratings are based on a model factoring in team performance and team consistency. Ratings are produced by taking the estimated team parameters (across 10,000 iterations). The rating value represents the number of standard deviations a team will score above or below the score of an average team.

Ratings using games played up until March 5th are shown in the table below. The table contains the following information:

  • Rating: The projected overall rating of each team
  • Scoring: The estimated difference in points scored compared to an average team overall  (higher values indicates a stronger offense)
  • Scoring Consistency: An index of how consistently a team scored as compared to an average team (higher values means more consistency; positive values means consistency is greater than average; negative values means consistency is less than average)
  • Defending: The estimated difference in points given up compared to an average team overall (lower values indicates a stronger defense)
  • Defending Consistency: An index of how consistently a team gave up points as compared to an average team (higher values means more consistency; positive values means consistency is greater than average; negative values means consistency is less than average)

Tournament predictions based on the model are located here: https://jonathantemplin.com/2018-ncaa-tournament-predictions/

Estimated Team Ratings for Games Through March 10, 2018

TeamRatingScoringScoring ConsistencyDefendingDefending Consistency
Virginia32.2125.089.54-7.131.29
Michigan28.8021.0712.35-7.737.28
Villanova24.9424.5510.99-0.3915.81
Florida24.2716.9414.19-7.337.75
Miami (FL)23.6016.479.81-7.139.33
Georgetown23.1611.6410.86-11.5210.37
Cincinnati22.8820.4411.88-2.44-0.56
North Carolina22.1120.3611.63-1.7513.41
Gonzaga20.5118.8612.90-1.6512.21
Tennessee19.6717.5111.29-2.164.20
Southern California19.0013.9411.91-5.066.53
Wichita State18.8417.1910.67-1.6511.92
Purdue18.6421.0711.822.4313.89
Arizona18.6316.6610.26-1.9711.52
Kansas State17.9315.8310.97-2.105.71
New Mexico State17.2712.549.02-4.734.76
Rhode Island17.2313.929.34-3.319.03
Penn State17.0114.4410.34-2.575.60
Texas Christian16.5416.698.900.1513.75
Marquette16.4112.6213.34-3.7913.90
Kansas16.0918.8714.212.789.22
Georgia State16.058.3914.17-7.66-1.14
Michigan State15.1021.0112.115.917.91
Marshall14.396.3410.36-8.0510.92
Ohio State14.3815.0914.760.716.64
Notre Dame14.3513.5812.83-0.772.35
Texas A&M14.1514.4512.560.305.75
Auburn13.6314.779.871.1411.48
Texas Tech13.6115.4112.621.803.56
Florida Gulf Coast13.536.8813.49-6.653.27
San Diego13.536.6210.72-6.912.21
Fresno State13.278.6610.93-4.612.70
Florida State13.2612.7211.00-0.549.37
Clemson13.1813.909.410.722.64
Arizona State13.1612.4411.25-0.7214.93
Wisconsin13.1211.0110.77-2.11-3.48
Louisville12.8412.0212.11-0.826.68
Texas12.779.868.47-2.910.49
Virginia Tech12.6212.3112.70-0.319.81
Murray State12.589.779.36-2.813.01
Nevada12.4713.3810.750.9111.24
Providence12.468.9911.83-3.471.11
Buffalo12.388.5810.33-3.8012.70
Xavier12.2315.3510.953.1211.02
Vermont11.878.386.98-3.492.85
Maryland11.8312.337.440.506.24
East Tennessee State11.798.8711.83-2.92-1.13
Indiana State11.525.7013.01-5.824.26
Louisiana11.519.4614.60-2.057.08
Kentucky11.4513.4910.992.045.30
Furman11.347.4512.02-3.895.12
Northern Colorado11.307.1011.53-4.204.37
Memphis11.285.6910.82-5.591.92
Wofford11.104.0312.73-7.07-0.45
Loyola (IL)10.9410.4212.33-0.520.27
Seton Hall10.9112.388.741.4710.57
Hartford10.892.1714.79-8.72-0.07
Liberty10.653.2211.67-7.43-3.35
Robert Morris10.55-1.6312.30-12.18-3.95
Wright State10.544.1610.46-6.382.21
Duke10.4118.4712.988.0616.09
Saint Joseph's10.025.5713.62-4.454.64
Oklahoma State9.8810.5911.210.716.60
Nebraska9.8410.5412.470.701.93
Western Kentucky9.7010.3811.770.686.56
Southeast Missouri State9.25-0.4910.41-9.745.79
St. John's (NY)9.048.7713.18-0.273.76
William & Mary9.043.7015.09-5.345.68
South Carolina9.038.6210.35-0.410.28
Cal State Fullerton9.033.6412.11-5.393.62
Temple8.857.8513.75-1.004.30
North Dakota State8.723.3614.10-5.360.13
Middle Tennessee8.708.7812.020.080.66
UCLA8.689.9010.261.2212.86
Iona8.655.0710.88-3.589.03
Toledo8.513.5913.43-4.926.01
St. Bonaventure8.348.799.780.454.40
Nevada-Las Vegas8.337.3814.12-0.958.40
Missouri8.1811.2111.833.031.83
South Dakota8.039.589.491.555.51
DePaul8.035.1410.13-2.89-1.11
Iowa State8.006.0312.08-1.976.30
Belmont7.807.8412.750.043.78
Wyoming7.715.3611.30-2.357.69
Arkansas7.6911.9211.964.2310.60
South Dakota State7.589.4210.511.8413.76
Alabama7.549.2114.331.672.90
Idaho7.433.5413.31-3.89-0.69
North Carolina-Greensboro7.226.6311.65-0.591.36
Northeastern7.186.2211.07-0.960.06
Jacksonville State7.033.0814.54-3.95-5.47
Illinois6.956.4213.65-0.533.18
West Virginia6.8914.7815.147.898.92
Washington6.786.6612.99-0.121.63
Valparaiso6.733.9211.62-2.812.02
Eastern Michigan6.670.358.99-6.32-6.90
Georgia6.626.0211.21-0.60-5.54
Sacred Heart6.58-4.8912.02-11.47-3.13
Northern Kentucky6.486.6512.970.173.87
Minnesota6.395.7411.87-0.657.64
Houston6.3412.2713.435.937.00
Western Michigan6.34-0.1111.52-6.45-0.17
Wake Forest6.246.6611.370.422.80
Boston College6.217.2511.051.045.41
George Mason6.18-0.229.79-6.400.28
San Francisco6.042.6310.75-3.41-3.05
Syracuse6.027.927.631.900.65
Niagara5.731.1613.66-4.5710.30
Missouri State5.675.7311.950.060.01
UC-Davis5.612.4111.81-3.20-0.87
Brigham Young5.516.8412.511.33-1.24
Coastal Carolina5.49-0.569.40-6.05-0.03
Davidson5.469.0513.633.596.56
Milwaukee5.450.1914.44-5.26-2.13
Richmond5.241.6512.41-3.593.50
Baylor5.079.4410.724.37-0.31
Towson4.881.4810.72-3.400.62
Oklahoma4.839.2111.454.3811.66
Lipscomb4.750.0310.04-4.728.38
Albany (NY)4.461.8910.34-2.57-1.81
Duquesne4.450.1512.25-4.30-0.42
North Carolina State4.429.1311.204.7110.72
Alabama-Birmingham4.405.5115.761.113.21
Pacific4.391.9611.92-2.43-2.54
Indiana4.347.9112.493.570.70
Maryland-Baltimore County4.14-0.0416.18-4.18-3.36
Navy3.97-2.7312.88-6.70-7.33
Northern Iowa3.954.187.600.23-8.30
Sacramento State3.73-3.9912.42-7.72-7.96
Oregon State3.724.489.200.76-2.32
Green Bay3.69-3.648.94-7.335.07
Mercer3.474.2410.920.773.52
IPFW3.471.4312.61-2.045.39
Georgia Tech3.394.559.891.16-0.77
Pennsylvania3.383.8911.440.512.62
Texas State3.33-1.629.01-4.95-8.08
Butler3.289.7211.856.444.22
Texas-Arlington3.152.8313.87-0.325.48
Monmouth3.030.5511.77-2.482.99
Bowling Green State2.97-2.1012.49-5.072.96
Yale2.93-1.4110.53-4.340.56
Quinnipiac2.82-3.028.90-5.840.99
Utah2.816.6710.863.86-0.56
Grambling2.80-7.0614.45-9.86-2.36
Grand Canyon2.794.238.771.440.14
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi2.71-7.7113.93-10.42-6.21
Boise State2.687.3311.634.650.76
UC-Santa Barbara2.662.7910.680.135.98
Portland State2.340.988.68-1.369.67
Bucknell2.344.5212.192.187.92
Tennessee State2.32-1.6314.24-3.95-6.94
Canisius2.143.249.401.100.09
Rutgers1.803.4512.781.65-6.55
Mississippi State1.734.3711.132.640.28
Eastern Kentucky1.71-5.259.96-6.96-0.12
University of California1.40-2.3415.37-3.74-6.71
Lehigh1.35-3.4710.60-4.825.09
College of Charleston1.332.6110.321.28-1.56
Montana1.206.649.585.441.89
Colorado State1.17-1.9812.18-3.152.45
Illinois-Chicago1.11-1.5010.90-2.611.42
Louisiana Tech1.071.728.830.65-1.62
Stanford0.894.1711.643.281.30
Stony Brook0.88-2.279.18-3.15-5.32
Seattle0.831.4613.310.632.88
Iowa0.555.399.884.8410.89
Manhattan0.50-2.6510.32-3.15-8.06
Hofstra0.460.5912.020.132.65
Virginia Commonwealth0.411.9410.601.535.27
Weber State0.301.2811.690.983.47
Georgia Southern0.18-0.339.93-0.51-0.66
James Madison0.05-2.277.90-2.32-1.49
Mississippi-0.092.7110.922.807.75
Boston University-0.13-5.4812.66-5.35-3.67
Utah State-0.181.249.361.42-2.24
Stephen F. Austin-0.222.7010.162.922.95
Brown-0.38-5.5611.20-5.180.98
Old Dominion-0.406.3612.346.76-2.16
Santa Clara-0.43-5.1315.55-4.70-8.59
Vanderbilt-0.483.559.664.03-1.12
Delaware-0.49-2.6310.14-2.14-3.86
Tulane-0.53-0.4211.100.110.45
North Texas-0.61-2.8411.51-2.23-4.26
Central Arkansas-0.66-3.1314.28-2.478.18
Loyola Marymount-0.76-2.827.75-2.06-1.22
South Florida-0.79-4.3214.64-3.53-6.22
Pittsburgh-0.87-2.3411.60-1.47-5.91
Hawaii-1.02-2.1710.98-1.15-2.66
Texas Southern-1.12-3.4010.39-2.283.57
Florida Atlantic-1.18-4.6611.97-3.48-5.76
Saint Mary's (CA)-1.268.0511.769.311.90
Rider-1.321.2711.912.597.01
Fordham-1.33-4.8511.24-3.52-6.69
Southeastern Louisiana-1.35-2.5111.52-1.16-3.52
Radford-1.36-0.878.190.49-7.79
Louisiana State-1.484.6913.346.176.53
Louisiana-Monroe-1.52-3.2312.17-1.71-8.73
Florida International-1.65-2.9110.17-1.26-1.12
New Mexico-1.803.6613.175.467.58
Chattanooga-1.85-6.789.86-4.93-5.14
Oakland-1.98-2.0411.16-0.061.34
Illinois State-2.000.4913.702.490.75
Central Florida-2.072.009.564.07-8.32
Southern Illinois-2.121.4913.063.61-0.05
Abilene Christian-2.20-3.5113.66-1.31-5.16
East Carolina-2.21-8.0713.16-5.86-3.11
Troy-2.26-0.7210.001.54-1.89
Lamar-2.29-2.0613.850.23-3.44
Oregon-2.305.8813.038.182.17
Northwestern-2.304.9114.047.21-4.04
Drake-2.31-0.5812.851.732.13
Prairie View-2.35-6.0411.71-3.69-0.85
Fairleigh Dickinson-2.36-6.249.70-3.88-2.74
Colorado-2.424.0811.966.50-1.20
Tulsa-2.512.3510.044.86-0.96
Portland-2.52-4.3710.14-1.85-5.66
Long Beach State-2.53-3.5412.10-1.011.82
Colgate-2.57-3.029.76-0.45-2.44
Massachusetts-Lowell-2.67-6.0411.66-3.373.08
Southern Methodist-2.913.7611.576.67-3.31
Southern Utah-3.25-5.679.59-2.42-0.87
Columbia-3.37-4.719.14-1.343.47
Washington State-3.43-2.0212.801.414.59
Saint Francis (PA)-3.67-3.4015.040.271.73
Cal State Northridge-3.88-8.8610.03-4.98-6.20
Nicholls State-4.01-2.719.671.305.58
Sam Houston State-4.06-4.529.39-0.46-2.67
Incarnate Word-4.30-12.559.15-8.25-4.34
Missouri-Kansas City-4.48-7.7713.86-3.29-2.85
Pepperdine-4.53-6.428.65-1.89-1.60
New Orleans-4.69-7.4710.95-2.78-7.37
Arkansas State-4.72-7.2812.43-2.56-2.34
UC-Irvine-4.901.1511.096.05-5.36
Utah Valley-4.911.7613.526.672.71
La Salle-4.92-2.558.742.370.88
Eastern Illinois-4.99-6.049.54-1.05-10.37
San Diego State-5.036.0812.3811.113.60
Appalachian State-5.11-2.4012.952.714.36
Stetson-5.31-8.2112.68-2.900.30
Wagner-5.40-3.4312.091.97-4.66
Saint Peter's-5.47-3.0612.542.41-13.44
NJIT-5.60-5.929.73-0.32-4.23
Miami (OH)-5.69-2.9910.482.70-6.52
Eastern Washington-5.821.3410.407.161.12
Nebraska-Omaha-5.82-6.658.68-0.833.52
Holy Cross-5.82-7.499.39-1.67-9.76
Long Island University-5.84-6.2210.13-0.382.02
Evansville-6.050.0411.286.09-6.58
Creighton-6.197.6210.2213.818.99
Texas-San Antonio-6.20-2.3012.203.906.39
McNeese State-6.27-8.5513.37-2.28-1.35
Texas-Rio Grande Valley-6.42-5.8012.470.621.90
Loyola (MD)-6.45-10.6710.65-4.22-6.90
Austin Peay-6.55-3.7911.572.760.07
Drexel-6.65-5.1011.311.55-2.88
Dayton-6.66-3.0911.123.57-1.24
Western Illinois-6.82-8.6116.87-1.79-9.13
Connecticut-6.83-2.779.864.06-1.48
Idaho State-7.16-5.6710.771.49-4.41
South Alabama-7.21-5.9911.741.22-6.07
Gardner-Webb-7.33-6.0111.581.32-1.35
Winthrop-7.39-2.0912.315.305.96
Rice-7.45-8.387.61-0.93-6.13
George Washington-7.56-3.2211.254.34-4.74
Texas-El Paso-7.61-4.9511.402.66-3.17
Southern-7.68-11.0610.08-3.38-5.55
IUPUI-7.81-7.608.750.21-7.13
Presbyterian-7.94-11.6610.40-3.72-11.11
North Dakota-7.99-6.4711.541.525.80
Denver-8.01-5.4713.142.54-1.57
Elon-8.03-6.1911.881.84-2.35
Kent State-8.09-6.207.841.89-4.22
New Hampshire-8.27-6.958.471.32-7.84
Fairfield-8.34-4.229.204.12-3.14
Saint Louis-8.48-2.0813.256.40-7.62
North Carolina-Asheville-8.70-4.8611.983.842.09
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville-8.76-9.379.58-0.61-3.14
Bryant-9.02-15.178.73-6.15-2.41
Tennessee-Martin-9.07-9.419.96-0.34-7.56
Army-9.21-8.0813.171.13-2.30
Dartmouth-9.29-10.3510.45-1.06-5.42
Florida A&M-9.49-13.279.85-3.78-8.72
Princeton-9.61-6.2015.443.41-2.44
Kennesaw State-9.64-9.119.240.53-3.23
Longwood-9.64-14.5613.95-4.92-11.01
UC-Riverside-9.67-8.1211.491.55-9.08
Central Michigan-9.69-6.9211.792.770.62
Savannah State-9.84-10.759.56-0.9110.73
Maine-9.86-11.3110.63-1.45-6.63
American-9.91-11.698.82-1.78-5.24
Tennessee Tech-9.97-5.6310.114.34-2.38
Oral Roberts-10.02-5.5413.774.48-1.17
Akron-10.15-8.499.111.66-4.87
Massachusetts-10.36-5.4611.934.90-1.30
Campbell-10.36-6.289.994.081.00
Bradley-10.39-0.8510.369.54-6.45
San Jose State-10.43-9.657.740.78-7.82
Norfolk State-10.74-9.6211.311.12-7.53
Ohio-10.87-5.2314.285.64-3.03
Central Connecticut State-10.96-9.6911.431.27-6.08
Ball State-11.13-2.4015.198.730.44
St. Francis (NY)-11.30-10.8712.260.43-4.70
High Point-11.36-7.5212.803.84-8.60
Charleston Southern-11.36-9.3113.672.05-9.18
Arkansas-Little Rock-11.44-10.0311.381.41-11.99
Jackson State-11.46-14.459.77-2.99-14.71
Marist-11.76-10.3712.571.39-4.87
Air Force-11.81-7.3312.104.48-8.64
Montana State-11.81-8.9212.952.89-3.40
Cleveland State-12.02-10.5311.271.49-7.89
Chicago State-12.09-17.8913.81-5.80-5.33
Cal State Bakersfield-12.41-6.1412.596.27-7.14
North Carolina Central-12.73-10.0511.572.68-10.25
Bethune-Cookman-13.27-9.8512.403.420.56
Morgan State-13.35-10.9414.972.41-5.20
North Florida-13.40-9.1512.094.253.49
Northern Arizona-13.44-12.5811.740.86-4.43
Coppin State-13.61-16.1311.53-2.52-14.32
South Carolina State-13.65-16.3912.17-2.74-5.86
North Carolina A&T-13.77-10.728.713.05-2.65
Morehead State-13.96-9.2612.624.70-1.93
Binghamton-14.02-9.5710.564.45-7.00
Western Carolina-14.20-11.2110.822.99-5.10
Harvard-14.25-4.808.049.45-8.50
Alabama State-14.27-15.8611.17-1.59-5.15
Virginia Military Institute-14.78-13.3511.721.43-8.76
Hampton-15.09-9.0011.616.09-0.20
South Carolina Upstate-15.40-14.9410.620.460.80
Southern Mississippi-15.90-7.2911.628.61-7.67
Arkansas-Pine Bluff-16.11-13.6011.642.51-9.80
Jacksonville-16.14-12.9014.683.24-6.37
Howard-16.19-14.6010.061.59-4.86
Siena-16.55-11.509.535.05-6.29
Citadel-16.82-12.2615.244.566.40
Youngstown State-17.50-12.4617.055.04-1.05
Charlotte-17.67-13.189.954.49-7.08
Detroit Mercy-18.32-13.4410.934.882.61
Cornell-18.47-12.8912.895.58-3.49
Cal Poly-18.61-13.2911.665.32-13.04
Houston Baptist-18.87-14.1314.184.741.68
Alcorn State-19.70-16.2712.433.43-9.27
Samford-19.90-13.379.876.530.11
North Carolina-Wilmington-20.09-10.5811.119.513.67
Northern Illinois-20.90-11.4913.659.41-5.00
Delaware State-21.04-21.5514.32-0.51-12.90
Mount St. Mary's-21.92-11.6710.6410.25-9.13
Mississippi Valley State-22.28-19.3310.622.95-12.71
Northwestern State-23.28-23.0414.530.24-13.73
Alabama A&M-23.71-22.3110.791.40-13.20
Lafayette-30.22-14.9311.1515.29-7.38
Maryland-Eastern Shore-36.54-25.7611.3210.78-17.55



2018 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Just in time for the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I used a statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. A year ago years ago I used the same model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with some success.

The model ratings can be found here: https://jonathantemplin.com/2018-ncaa-mens-college-basketball-division-1-team-ratings/

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament. In the table, the GamesWon column indicates the expected number of games won for a team across all games in the tournament. Each column to the right of GamesWon represents the The proportion of times a team reached each round of the tournament across the 10,000 simulations (or the probability a team reaches a given round).

TeamGamesWonRound64Round32Round16Round8Round4Round2Champion
Virginia3.501.000.950.800.670.500.360.23
Villanova3.291.000.990.820.610.420.280.17
Purdue2.441.000.890.690.450.230.130.07
Michigan State2.341.000.890.610.390.260.130.06
Michigan2.361.000.880.660.380.250.120.06
North Carolina2.411.000.960.680.380.240.110.05
Cincinnati2.061.000.790.600.370.160.090.05
Kansas2.131.000.830.600.380.200.090.04
Duke1.981.000.840.570.290.170.080.04
Gonzaga1.941.000.810.520.330.170.080.03
Tennessee1.791.000.870.500.260.090.050.02
Wichita State1.741.000.860.540.180.090.040.02
Florida1.421.000.680.410.200.080.040.02
Xavier1.941.000.950.570.260.100.040.02
Miami (FL)1.361.000.700.370.180.060.030.01
Arizona1.541.000.790.510.130.060.030.01
Texas Christian1.241.000.700.270.150.080.030.01
Ohio State1.241.000.650.310.170.070.030.01
Kansas State1.131.000.770.170.100.050.020.01
Auburn1.711.000.890.470.230.090.030.01
Texas Tech1.541.000.830.430.190.070.030.01
West Virginia1.161.000.660.320.110.050.020.01
Texas A&M1.061.000.650.240.110.050.020.01
Kentucky1.011.000.630.280.060.020.010.00
Houston1.011.000.660.220.080.030.010.00
Clemson1.091.000.570.300.140.050.010.00
Rhode Island1.121.000.680.290.090.040.010.00
Florida State0.951.000.550.250.100.030.010.00
Virginia Tech0.771.000.570.110.050.020.010.00
Nevada1.001.000.650.230.090.020.010.00
Arkansas0.841.000.570.170.070.020.010.00
Arizona State1.120.700.260.090.040.020.010.00
New Mexico State0.761.000.430.210.090.030.010.00
Seton Hall1.011.000.640.240.100.030.010.00
Missouri0.721.000.450.180.070.020.010.00
Alabama0.531.000.430.070.020.010.000.00
Oklahoma0.461.000.320.110.030.010.000.00
South Dakota State0.521.000.350.110.040.010.000.00
Loyola (IL)0.451.000.300.110.040.010.000.00
Georgia State0.331.000.210.090.030.010.000.00
Providence0.471.000.350.080.030.010.000.00
Butler0.591.000.430.110.040.010.000.00
North Carolina State0.541.000.360.130.040.010.000.00
UCLA0.830.540.180.080.020.000.000.00
Texas0.471.000.350.090.020.000.000.00
Murray State0.471.000.340.100.020.000.000.00
Davidson0.511.000.370.120.020.010.000.00
Iona0.211.000.160.040.010.000.000.00
Pennsylvania0.221.000.170.040.010.000.000.00
San Diego State0.431.000.340.070.010.000.000.00
North Carolina-Greensboro0.281.000.190.070.020.000.000.00
St. Bonaventure0.670.460.140.060.010.000.000.00
Syracuse0.350.300.040.010.000.000.000.00
College of Charleston0.131.000.110.020.000.000.000.00
Bucknell0.141.000.110.020.010.000.000.00
Montana0.181.000.120.050.010.000.000.00
Lipscomb0.051.000.040.010.000.000.000.00
North Carolina Central0.300.290.010.000.000.000.000.00
Texas Southern0.760.710.040.000.000.000.000.00
Marshall0.191.000.140.040.010.000.000.00
Stephen F. Austin0.211.000.170.030.010.000.000.00
Cal State Fullerton0.151.000.110.040.010.000.000.00
Long Island University0.260.260.000.000.000.000.000.00
Radford0.750.740.010.000.000.000.000.00
Creighton0.261.000.230.020.010.000.000.00
Buffalo0.311.000.210.090.010.000.000.00
Wright State0.161.000.130.030.010.000.000.00
Maryland-Baltimore County0.061.000.050.010.000.000.000.00



Latest NCAA Tournament Predictions: Still No Overwhelming Favorite

The latest NCAA Tournament predictions are up and the chaos of the tournament is likely to continue. Although Gonzaga has the highest probability of becoming champion, no team has a greater than 50% chance at making the final four. Benefitting from the losses of Duke and Villanova, Florida now has the second highest chance of making it to the final four, sitting at nearly 41%.

What strikes me is the parity in this year’s top teams. After a relatively un-eventful first round, upsets seemed to happen in the round of 32. Such a result seems due to having a group of very good teams that are capable of beating anyone and another group of teams that aren’t as good. We are now in a spot where only the best teams remain, so expect more upsets to happen for the remainder of the tournament.

The updated model estimates gives the following predictions for the remainder of this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionElite EightFinal FourFinal TwoChampion
Gonzaga1West0.67560.49520.37210.2655
Kansas1Midwest0.67830.40740.22520.0969
Arizona2West0.82650.30970.17290.0963
Florida4East0.59650.41540.16490.0883
UCLA3South0.54250.31330.17560.0784
Michigan7Midwest0.57730.28050.13730.06
North Carolina1South0.5420.25040.12660.0551
Kentucky2South0.45750.24130.1250.0539
Wisconsin8East0.40350.24650.09320.0452
West Virginia4West0.32440.16650.08390.0428
Baylor3East0.64850.24870.08470.0355
Butler4South0.4580.1950.08620.0321
Purdue4Midwest0.32170.15550.06390.0229
Oregon3Midwest0.42270.15660.06020.0194
South Carolina7East0.35150.08940.02180.0065
Xavier11West0.17350.02860.00650.0012

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

 




2017 NCAA Tournament Prediction: Get Ready for Bracket Chaos

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionGames WonRound of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinal 2Champion
Gonzaga1West3.5110.9820.8040.6460.4940.3340.246
Villanova1East2.5410.9430.6870.4150.2650.1390.095
Kentucky2South2.3510.9570.6220.3610.2260.1290.058
Duke2East2.5410.9490.7560.4630.220.0940.054
Saint Mary's (CA)7West2.0710.9060.5110.3780.1530.080.047
UCLA3South2.310.9570.6510.3350.2110.1070.04
Kansas1Midwest2.5210.9740.7380.4380.2170.1180.039
Virginia5East1.7510.8310.4510.230.1350.0640.038
Louisville2Midwest1.9910.9490.4650.2860.1650.0930.036
Arizona2West1.9410.9150.4730.3290.1280.0610.035
Oklahoma State10Midwest1.3210.5690.3220.1990.1250.0720.034
Florida4East1.9410.9630.5270.2380.130.0490.029
North Carolina1South2.0310.8860.5650.3230.1510.0740.026
Iowa State5Midwest1.4310.6710.3820.2050.1010.0530.022
West Virginia4West1.5210.7790.4420.1610.0820.0390.021
Purdue4Midwest1.7210.8720.4680.2180.0980.050.018
Baylor3East1.8710.9010.5450.2610.1060.0370.018
Creighton6Midwest1.1210.5490.3120.1370.0720.0380.015
Butler4South1.4510.7110.3840.2080.0910.040.014
Michigan7Midwest0.8610.4310.2040.1140.060.0330.013
Southern Methodist6East1.3710.730.360.1710.0710.0270.013
Wichita State10South1.3210.7490.3050.1420.0790.0330.01
Oregon3Midwest1.5310.8360.4160.1610.0720.0330.009
Kansas State11aSouth1.510.66270.4630.20.0940.0550.0250.009
Minnesota5South1.0410.5160.2880.1410.0570.0260.008
Notre Dame5West1.5410.8880.4950.1010.0390.0130.007
Maryland6West1.7210.8550.6040.1890.0480.0170.007
Wisconsin8East0.8510.5430.1820.070.0330.0130.007
Rhode Island11Midwest0.8510.4510.2380.0930.040.020.006
Middle Tennessee12South0.9210.4840.2530.1240.0420.0130.004
Miami (FL)8Midwest0.9610.6510.1950.0770.0280.0110.003
Florida State3West1.2310.7870.3130.0930.0220.0080.003
Northwestern8West0.6910.5350.0930.0410.0160.0060.003
Arkansas8South0.910.5210.230.1050.0340.0120.003
Vanderbilt9West0.6310.4650.10.0430.0160.0060.002
Virginia Tech9East0.6510.4570.1210.0430.0160.0060.002
Marquette10East0.8410.5940.1590.0650.0160.0050.002
Nevada12Midwest0.510.3290.1160.0370.0130.0040.001
Cincinnati6South0.4910.350.0910.0320.0140.0030.001
Seton Hall9South0.7710.4790.1940.0740.0190.0050.001
Wake Forest11bSouth0.610.33730.1870.0530.0190.0090.0040.001
Michigan State9Midwest0.4410.3490.0630.020.0040.0010
Vermont13Midwest0.1710.1280.0340.0060.0020.0010
Iona14Midwest0.2110.1650.0350.0080.0020.0010
Jacksonville State15Midwest0.0610.0510.0090.001000
North Carolina Central16aMidwest0.80.770.0250.0050.001000
UC-Davis16bMidwest0.230.20.00100000
Virginia Commonwealth10West0.110.0950.0080.001000
Xavier11West0.2310.1450.0740.0090.00100
Princeton12West0.1610.1120.0380.0050.00100
Bucknell13West0.2510.2210.0250.002000
Florida Gulf Coast14West0.2210.2130.0090000
North Dakota15West0.0910.0850.0070.001000
South Dakota State16West0.0210.0180.0040000
South Carolina7East0.510.4060.0740.0140.00200
Southern California11aEast0.580.45470.0980.0190.0050.00100
Providence11bEast0.790.54530.1720.0550.0170.0040.0010
North Carolina-Wilmington12East0.1910.1690.0140.002000
East Tennessee State13East0.0510.0370.0080.001000
New Mexico State14East0.1210.0990.0210.0030.00100
Troy15East0.0610.0510.010.002000
Mount St. Mary's16aEast0.410.41120.00100000
New Orleans16bEast0.660.58880.0560.0110.001000
Dayton7South0.3510.2510.070.0170.0080.0020
Winthrop13South0.3910.290.0750.0230.0050.0010
Kent State14South0.0510.0430.0040000
Northern Kentucky15South0.0510.0430.0030000
Texas Southern16South0.1310.1140.0110.002000



2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

 




2015 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Final Update

Wisconsin pulled the upset of Kentucky, which makes the final of the 2015 NCAA Tournament an interesting match-up between two very evenly matched teams. Throughout the tournament, all predictions indicated that Wisconsin was (a very distant) second behind Kentucky with respect to probabilities of winning the tournament.

Based on the latest (and final) model predictions, Wisconsin is a slight favorite over Duke in a game that is essentially a toss-up:

TeamSeedRegionProb of ChampionshipB-T Effect
Wisconsin1West0.53265.461
Duke1South0.46745.294

Overall Model Results

Although the Bradley-Terry model was accurate at picking the winner for only 71.2% of the games, a deeper analysis shows that the model predictions were well calibrated but that the model itself lacked the prediction power to be more informative. In the figure below, the X-axis represents the model-predicted probability a team would win and the Y-axis represents the expected true proportion of wins for any given probability. The solid red line is the model the dashed black line is where a perfectly calibrated model would fall.

modelpred

The graph shows that the model was, for the most part, well calibrated in its assessment of probability in that the red line is nearly on top of the black line. Where the model missed was with predicted probabilities close to .5 and close to 1. In these cases, the model was slightly over-confident in its assessment of probability.

What does that mean for the final game (with a model-predicted probability of winning of .53)? Based on the curve in the graph, the result is likely closer to a 50-50 game.

What this says to me is that a better model is needed…and one will be forthcoming in time for the next round of predictions…to be continued…




2015 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Final Four Update

The 2015 NCAA Tournament is down to the final four teams. The biggest surprise is Michigan State, who started the tournament with a 1.8% chance to make the final four. Those chances were especially long when compared to the pre-tournament chances of the other three final four teams (Kentucky at 67.9%, Wisconsin at 43.2%, and Duke at 30.3%).

Kentucky is still the clear favorite to win the tournament. Should Kentucky not advance to the final game, however, there will be no clear favorite to win out.

TeamSeedRegionFinal GameWinnerB-T Effect
Duke1South0.730.205.23
Kentucky1Midwest0.700.576.63
Michigan St7East0.270.034.08
Wisconsin1West0.300.205.54



2015 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Elite Eight Update

The final eight teams are set in the NCAA Tournament. From the updated model results (method described in this previous post), of the four games in this round, only Kentucky’s match-up with Notre Dame has a high probability of one team winning (Kentucky at .794). The remaining three games are close to toss-ups.

Overall, Kentucky now has almost even odds to win the tournament. If Kentucky were to lose, Wisconsin, and the winner of the Duke and Gonzaga (the model thinks Duke with a .531 probability of winning) game would be next in line to be the favorite.

TeamSeedRegionB-T EffectProb Final 4Prob Final GameProb Winner
Kentucky1Midwest6.4890.7940.5900.477
Wisconsin1West5.3720.5990.2130.133
Duke1South5.1230.5310.3750.120
Gonzaga2South4.9770.4690.3210.104
Arizona2West4.9510.4020.1120.064
Notre Dame3Midwest4.7830.2060.0850.044
Louisville4East4.3380.5920.1990.043
Michigan St7East3.9420.4080.1050.017



2015 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Sweet 16 Update

Although KU’s loss yesterday means basketball exist to many here in Lawrence, Kansas, there still is a tournament going on and 16 teams left. Here is a brief update on the model predictions for the Sweet 16. Again, this uses the Bradley-Terry model predictions using methods described in this post.

I’ll update the model results for each remaining round and recap the accuracy of the model predictions at the end of the tournament. It is interesting to compare this model’s predictions with those from other prediction systems, such as Ken Pomeroy’s log 5.

Overall, Kentucky appears to be the overwhelming favorite. Their likely opponent will be the team that emerges from the South: most likely Duke or Gonzaga.

TeamB-T EffectProb Elite 8Prob Final 4Prob Final GameProb WinnerExpected #Wins
Kentucky6.420.90830.73220.56410.46324.6678
Wisconsin5.280.79480.50340.19210.1263.6163
Gonzaga4.920.87160.46790.33260.11373.7858
Duke5.010.72640.41030.28890.09873.5243
Arizona4.900.80830.38470.11850.0713.3825
Notre Dame4.640.56530.14490.06450.03382.8085
Louisville4.250.70390.40890.14760.03073.2911
Wichita St4.340.43470.09390.03630.0172.5819
Oklahoma3.900.52190.25130.07840.01342.865
Michigan St3.820.47810.22220.07230.01172.7843
Utah3.920.27360.09970.0510.00982.4341
North Carolina3.770.20520.07150.01240.00432.2934
North Carolina St3.380.29610.11760.02360.00292.4402
West Virginia3.640.09170.0290.00690.00212.1297
Xavier OH3.360.19170.04040.00520.00142.2387
UCLA2.800.12840.02210.00560.00032.1564



2013 NCAA Bowl Predictions

Using a naive statistical model, below are the predicted results for each of this year’s bowl games. Beyond that, you can find the model’s rankings and ratings for each team’s scoring ability, defending ability, and total ability.

Following each game this bowl season, you can see how the model’s predictions did on ESPN’s Bowl Mania:

Bowl Predictions

Team Rankings