Just in time for the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I used a statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. A year ago years ago I used the same model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with some success.
The model ratings can be found here: http://jonathantemplin.com/2018-ncaa-mens-college-basketball-division-1-team-ratings/
The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament. In the table, the GamesWon column indicates the expected number of games won for a team across all games in the tournament. Each column to the right of GamesWon represents the The proportion of times a team reached each round of the tournament across the 10,000 simulations (or the probability a team reaches a given round).
| Team | GamesWon | Round64 | Round32 | Round16 | Round8 | Round4 | Round2 | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 3.50 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| Villanova | 3.29 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.82 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| Purdue | 2.44 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| Michigan State | 2.34 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| Michigan | 2.36 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| North Carolina | 2.41 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.68 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Cincinnati | 2.06 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 0.37 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Kansas | 2.13 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Duke | 1.98 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| Gonzaga | 1.94 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| Tennessee | 1.79 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.50 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Wichita State | 1.74 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.54 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Florida | 1.42 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Xavier | 1.94 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.57 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Miami (FL) | 1.36 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Arizona | 1.54 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Texas Christian | 1.24 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Ohio State | 1.24 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Kansas State | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Auburn | 1.71 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Texas Tech | 1.54 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| West Virginia | 1.16 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Texas A&M | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Kentucky | 1.01 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.28 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Houston | 1.01 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Clemson | 1.09 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Rhode Island | 1.12 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Florida State | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Virginia Tech | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Nevada | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Arkansas | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Arizona State | 1.12 | 0.70 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| New Mexico State | 0.76 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Seton Hall | 1.01 | 1.00 | 0.64 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Missouri | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Alabama | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oklahoma | 0.46 | 1.00 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| South Dakota State | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loyola (IL) | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georgia State | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Providence | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Butler | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| North Carolina State | 0.54 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| UCLA | 0.83 | 0.54 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Texas | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Murray State | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davidson | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iona | 0.21 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pennsylvania | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| San Diego State | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| North Carolina-Greensboro | 0.28 | 1.00 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| St. Bonaventure | 0.67 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Syracuse | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| College of Charleston | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bucknell | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montana | 0.18 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lipscomb | 0.05 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| North Carolina Central | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Texas Southern | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marshall | 0.19 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 0.21 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cal State Fullerton | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Long Island University | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Radford | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Creighton | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Buffalo | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wright State | 0.16 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maryland-Baltimore County | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |