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The final eight teams are set in the NCAA Tournament. From the updated model results (method described in this previous post), of the four games in this round, only Kentucky’s match-up with Notre Dame has a high probability of one team winning (Kentucky at .794). The remaining three games are close to toss-ups.

Overall, Kentucky now has almost even odds to win the tournament. If Kentucky were to lose, Wisconsin, and the winner of the Duke and Gonzaga (the model thinks Duke with a .531 probability of winning) game would be next in line to be the favorite.

TeamSeedRegionB-T EffectProb Final 4Prob Final GameProb Winner
Kentucky1Midwest6.4890.7940.5900.477
Wisconsin1West5.3720.5990.2130.133
Duke1South5.1230.5310.3750.120
Gonzaga2South4.9770.4690.3210.104
Arizona2West4.9510.4020.1120.064
Notre Dame3Midwest4.7830.2060.0850.044
Louisville4East4.3380.5920.1990.043
Michigan St7East3.9420.4080.1050.017

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