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Although KU’s loss yesterday means basketball exist to many here in Lawrence, Kansas, there still is a tournament going on and 16 teams left. Here is a brief update on the model predictions for the Sweet 16. Again, this uses the Bradley-Terry model predictions using methods described in this post.

I’ll update the model results for each remaining round and recap the accuracy of the model predictions at the end of the tournament. It is interesting to compare this model’s predictions with those from other prediction systems, such as Ken Pomeroy’s log 5.

Overall, Kentucky appears to be the overwhelming favorite. Their likely opponent will be the team that emerges from the South: most likely Duke or Gonzaga.

TeamB-T EffectProb Elite 8Prob Final 4Prob Final GameProb WinnerExpected #Wins
Kentucky6.420.90830.73220.56410.46324.6678
Wisconsin5.280.79480.50340.19210.1263.6163
Gonzaga4.920.87160.46790.33260.11373.7858
Duke5.010.72640.41030.28890.09873.5243
Arizona4.900.80830.38470.11850.0713.3825
Notre Dame4.640.56530.14490.06450.03382.8085
Louisville4.250.70390.40890.14760.03073.2911
Wichita St4.340.43470.09390.03630.0172.5819
Oklahoma3.900.52190.25130.07840.01342.865
Michigan St3.820.47810.22220.07230.01172.7843
Utah3.920.27360.09970.0510.00982.4341
North Carolina3.770.20520.07150.01240.00432.2934
North Carolina St3.380.29610.11760.02360.00292.4402
West Virginia3.640.09170.0290.00690.00212.1297
Xavier OH3.360.19170.04040.00520.00142.2387
UCLA2.800.12840.02210.00560.00032.1564

  Posts

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