2018 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Division 1 Team Ratings

Team Rating Estimates

Team ratings are based on a model factoring in team performance and team consistency. Ratings are produced by taking the estimated team parameters (across 10,000 iterations). The rating value represents the number of standard deviations a team will score above or below the score of an average team.

Ratings using games played up until March 5th are shown in the table below. The table contains the following information:

  • Rating: The projected overall rating of each team
  • Scoring: The estimated difference in points scored compared to an average team overall  (higher values indicates a stronger offense)
  • Scoring Consistency: An index of how consistently a team scored as compared to an average team (higher values means more consistency; positive values means consistency is greater than average; negative values means consistency is less than average)
  • Defending: The estimated difference in points given up compared to an average team overall (lower values indicates a stronger defense)
  • Defending Consistency: An index of how consistently a team gave up points as compared to an average team (higher values means more consistency; positive values means consistency is greater than average; negative values means consistency is less than average)

Tournament predictions based on the model are located here: https://jonathantemplin.com/2018-ncaa-tournament-predictions/

Estimated Team Ratings for Games Through March 10, 2018

TeamRatingScoringScoring ConsistencyDefendingDefending Consistency
Virginia32.2125.089.54-7.131.29
Michigan28.8021.0712.35-7.737.28
Villanova24.9424.5510.99-0.3915.81
Florida24.2716.9414.19-7.337.75
Miami (FL)23.6016.479.81-7.139.33
Georgetown23.1611.6410.86-11.5210.37
Cincinnati22.8820.4411.88-2.44-0.56
North Carolina22.1120.3611.63-1.7513.41
Gonzaga20.5118.8612.90-1.6512.21
Tennessee19.6717.5111.29-2.164.20
Southern California19.0013.9411.91-5.066.53
Wichita State18.8417.1910.67-1.6511.92
Purdue18.6421.0711.822.4313.89
Arizona18.6316.6610.26-1.9711.52
Kansas State17.9315.8310.97-2.105.71
New Mexico State17.2712.549.02-4.734.76
Rhode Island17.2313.929.34-3.319.03
Penn State17.0114.4410.34-2.575.60
Texas Christian16.5416.698.900.1513.75
Marquette16.4112.6213.34-3.7913.90
Kansas16.0918.8714.212.789.22
Georgia State16.058.3914.17-7.66-1.14
Michigan State15.1021.0112.115.917.91
Marshall14.396.3410.36-8.0510.92
Ohio State14.3815.0914.760.716.64
Notre Dame14.3513.5812.83-0.772.35
Texas A&M14.1514.4512.560.305.75
Auburn13.6314.779.871.1411.48
Texas Tech13.6115.4112.621.803.56
Florida Gulf Coast13.536.8813.49-6.653.27
San Diego13.536.6210.72-6.912.21
Fresno State13.278.6610.93-4.612.70
Florida State13.2612.7211.00-0.549.37
Clemson13.1813.909.410.722.64
Arizona State13.1612.4411.25-0.7214.93
Wisconsin13.1211.0110.77-2.11-3.48
Louisville12.8412.0212.11-0.826.68
Texas12.779.868.47-2.910.49
Virginia Tech12.6212.3112.70-0.319.81
Murray State12.589.779.36-2.813.01
Nevada12.4713.3810.750.9111.24
Providence12.468.9911.83-3.471.11
Buffalo12.388.5810.33-3.8012.70
Xavier12.2315.3510.953.1211.02
Vermont11.878.386.98-3.492.85
Maryland11.8312.337.440.506.24
East Tennessee State11.798.8711.83-2.92-1.13
Indiana State11.525.7013.01-5.824.26
Louisiana11.519.4614.60-2.057.08
Kentucky11.4513.4910.992.045.30
Furman11.347.4512.02-3.895.12
Northern Colorado11.307.1011.53-4.204.37
Memphis11.285.6910.82-5.591.92
Wofford11.104.0312.73-7.07-0.45
Loyola (IL)10.9410.4212.33-0.520.27
Seton Hall10.9112.388.741.4710.57
Hartford10.892.1714.79-8.72-0.07
Liberty10.653.2211.67-7.43-3.35
Robert Morris10.55-1.6312.30-12.18-3.95
Wright State10.544.1610.46-6.382.21
Duke10.4118.4712.988.0616.09
Saint Joseph's10.025.5713.62-4.454.64
Oklahoma State9.8810.5911.210.716.60
Nebraska9.8410.5412.470.701.93
Western Kentucky9.7010.3811.770.686.56
Southeast Missouri State9.25-0.4910.41-9.745.79
St. John's (NY)9.048.7713.18-0.273.76
William & Mary9.043.7015.09-5.345.68
South Carolina9.038.6210.35-0.410.28
Cal State Fullerton9.033.6412.11-5.393.62
Temple8.857.8513.75-1.004.30
North Dakota State8.723.3614.10-5.360.13
Middle Tennessee8.708.7812.020.080.66
UCLA8.689.9010.261.2212.86
Iona8.655.0710.88-3.589.03
Toledo8.513.5913.43-4.926.01
St. Bonaventure8.348.799.780.454.40
Nevada-Las Vegas8.337.3814.12-0.958.40
Missouri8.1811.2111.833.031.83
South Dakota8.039.589.491.555.51
DePaul8.035.1410.13-2.89-1.11
Iowa State8.006.0312.08-1.976.30
Belmont7.807.8412.750.043.78
Wyoming7.715.3611.30-2.357.69
Arkansas7.6911.9211.964.2310.60
South Dakota State7.589.4210.511.8413.76
Alabama7.549.2114.331.672.90
Idaho7.433.5413.31-3.89-0.69
North Carolina-Greensboro7.226.6311.65-0.591.36
Northeastern7.186.2211.07-0.960.06
Jacksonville State7.033.0814.54-3.95-5.47
Illinois6.956.4213.65-0.533.18
West Virginia6.8914.7815.147.898.92
Washington6.786.6612.99-0.121.63
Valparaiso6.733.9211.62-2.812.02
Eastern Michigan6.670.358.99-6.32-6.90
Georgia6.626.0211.21-0.60-5.54
Sacred Heart6.58-4.8912.02-11.47-3.13
Northern Kentucky6.486.6512.970.173.87
Minnesota6.395.7411.87-0.657.64
Houston6.3412.2713.435.937.00
Western Michigan6.34-0.1111.52-6.45-0.17
Wake Forest6.246.6611.370.422.80
Boston College6.217.2511.051.045.41
George Mason6.18-0.229.79-6.400.28
San Francisco6.042.6310.75-3.41-3.05
Syracuse6.027.927.631.900.65
Niagara5.731.1613.66-4.5710.30
Missouri State5.675.7311.950.060.01
UC-Davis5.612.4111.81-3.20-0.87
Brigham Young5.516.8412.511.33-1.24
Coastal Carolina5.49-0.569.40-6.05-0.03
Davidson5.469.0513.633.596.56
Milwaukee5.450.1914.44-5.26-2.13
Richmond5.241.6512.41-3.593.50
Baylor5.079.4410.724.37-0.31
Towson4.881.4810.72-3.400.62
Oklahoma4.839.2111.454.3811.66
Lipscomb4.750.0310.04-4.728.38
Albany (NY)4.461.8910.34-2.57-1.81
Duquesne4.450.1512.25-4.30-0.42
North Carolina State4.429.1311.204.7110.72
Alabama-Birmingham4.405.5115.761.113.21
Pacific4.391.9611.92-2.43-2.54
Indiana4.347.9112.493.570.70
Maryland-Baltimore County4.14-0.0416.18-4.18-3.36
Navy3.97-2.7312.88-6.70-7.33
Northern Iowa3.954.187.600.23-8.30
Sacramento State3.73-3.9912.42-7.72-7.96
Oregon State3.724.489.200.76-2.32
Green Bay3.69-3.648.94-7.335.07
Mercer3.474.2410.920.773.52
IPFW3.471.4312.61-2.045.39
Georgia Tech3.394.559.891.16-0.77
Pennsylvania3.383.8911.440.512.62
Texas State3.33-1.629.01-4.95-8.08
Butler3.289.7211.856.444.22
Texas-Arlington3.152.8313.87-0.325.48
Monmouth3.030.5511.77-2.482.99
Bowling Green State2.97-2.1012.49-5.072.96
Yale2.93-1.4110.53-4.340.56
Quinnipiac2.82-3.028.90-5.840.99
Utah2.816.6710.863.86-0.56
Grambling2.80-7.0614.45-9.86-2.36
Grand Canyon2.794.238.771.440.14
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi2.71-7.7113.93-10.42-6.21
Boise State2.687.3311.634.650.76
UC-Santa Barbara2.662.7910.680.135.98
Portland State2.340.988.68-1.369.67
Bucknell2.344.5212.192.187.92
Tennessee State2.32-1.6314.24-3.95-6.94
Canisius2.143.249.401.100.09
Rutgers1.803.4512.781.65-6.55
Mississippi State1.734.3711.132.640.28
Eastern Kentucky1.71-5.259.96-6.96-0.12
University of California1.40-2.3415.37-3.74-6.71
Lehigh1.35-3.4710.60-4.825.09
College of Charleston1.332.6110.321.28-1.56
Montana1.206.649.585.441.89
Colorado State1.17-1.9812.18-3.152.45
Illinois-Chicago1.11-1.5010.90-2.611.42
Louisiana Tech1.071.728.830.65-1.62
Stanford0.894.1711.643.281.30
Stony Brook0.88-2.279.18-3.15-5.32
Seattle0.831.4613.310.632.88
Iowa0.555.399.884.8410.89
Manhattan0.50-2.6510.32-3.15-8.06
Hofstra0.460.5912.020.132.65
Virginia Commonwealth0.411.9410.601.535.27
Weber State0.301.2811.690.983.47
Georgia Southern0.18-0.339.93-0.51-0.66
James Madison0.05-2.277.90-2.32-1.49
Mississippi-0.092.7110.922.807.75
Boston University-0.13-5.4812.66-5.35-3.67
Utah State-0.181.249.361.42-2.24
Stephen F. Austin-0.222.7010.162.922.95
Brown-0.38-5.5611.20-5.180.98
Old Dominion-0.406.3612.346.76-2.16
Santa Clara-0.43-5.1315.55-4.70-8.59
Vanderbilt-0.483.559.664.03-1.12
Delaware-0.49-2.6310.14-2.14-3.86
Tulane-0.53-0.4211.100.110.45
North Texas-0.61-2.8411.51-2.23-4.26
Central Arkansas-0.66-3.1314.28-2.478.18
Loyola Marymount-0.76-2.827.75-2.06-1.22
South Florida-0.79-4.3214.64-3.53-6.22
Pittsburgh-0.87-2.3411.60-1.47-5.91
Hawaii-1.02-2.1710.98-1.15-2.66
Texas Southern-1.12-3.4010.39-2.283.57
Florida Atlantic-1.18-4.6611.97-3.48-5.76
Saint Mary's (CA)-1.268.0511.769.311.90
Rider-1.321.2711.912.597.01
Fordham-1.33-4.8511.24-3.52-6.69
Southeastern Louisiana-1.35-2.5111.52-1.16-3.52
Radford-1.36-0.878.190.49-7.79
Louisiana State-1.484.6913.346.176.53
Louisiana-Monroe-1.52-3.2312.17-1.71-8.73
Florida International-1.65-2.9110.17-1.26-1.12
New Mexico-1.803.6613.175.467.58
Chattanooga-1.85-6.789.86-4.93-5.14
Oakland-1.98-2.0411.16-0.061.34
Illinois State-2.000.4913.702.490.75
Central Florida-2.072.009.564.07-8.32
Southern Illinois-2.121.4913.063.61-0.05
Abilene Christian-2.20-3.5113.66-1.31-5.16
East Carolina-2.21-8.0713.16-5.86-3.11
Troy-2.26-0.7210.001.54-1.89
Lamar-2.29-2.0613.850.23-3.44
Oregon-2.305.8813.038.182.17
Northwestern-2.304.9114.047.21-4.04
Drake-2.31-0.5812.851.732.13
Prairie View-2.35-6.0411.71-3.69-0.85
Fairleigh Dickinson-2.36-6.249.70-3.88-2.74
Colorado-2.424.0811.966.50-1.20
Tulsa-2.512.3510.044.86-0.96
Portland-2.52-4.3710.14-1.85-5.66
Long Beach State-2.53-3.5412.10-1.011.82
Colgate-2.57-3.029.76-0.45-2.44
Massachusetts-Lowell-2.67-6.0411.66-3.373.08
Southern Methodist-2.913.7611.576.67-3.31
Southern Utah-3.25-5.679.59-2.42-0.87
Columbia-3.37-4.719.14-1.343.47
Washington State-3.43-2.0212.801.414.59
Saint Francis (PA)-3.67-3.4015.040.271.73
Cal State Northridge-3.88-8.8610.03-4.98-6.20
Nicholls State-4.01-2.719.671.305.58
Sam Houston State-4.06-4.529.39-0.46-2.67
Incarnate Word-4.30-12.559.15-8.25-4.34
Missouri-Kansas City-4.48-7.7713.86-3.29-2.85
Pepperdine-4.53-6.428.65-1.89-1.60
New Orleans-4.69-7.4710.95-2.78-7.37
Arkansas State-4.72-7.2812.43-2.56-2.34
UC-Irvine-4.901.1511.096.05-5.36
Utah Valley-4.911.7613.526.672.71
La Salle-4.92-2.558.742.370.88
Eastern Illinois-4.99-6.049.54-1.05-10.37
San Diego State-5.036.0812.3811.113.60
Appalachian State-5.11-2.4012.952.714.36
Stetson-5.31-8.2112.68-2.900.30
Wagner-5.40-3.4312.091.97-4.66
Saint Peter's-5.47-3.0612.542.41-13.44
NJIT-5.60-5.929.73-0.32-4.23
Miami (OH)-5.69-2.9910.482.70-6.52
Eastern Washington-5.821.3410.407.161.12
Nebraska-Omaha-5.82-6.658.68-0.833.52
Holy Cross-5.82-7.499.39-1.67-9.76
Long Island University-5.84-6.2210.13-0.382.02
Evansville-6.050.0411.286.09-6.58
Creighton-6.197.6210.2213.818.99
Texas-San Antonio-6.20-2.3012.203.906.39
McNeese State-6.27-8.5513.37-2.28-1.35
Texas-Rio Grande Valley-6.42-5.8012.470.621.90
Loyola (MD)-6.45-10.6710.65-4.22-6.90
Austin Peay-6.55-3.7911.572.760.07
Drexel-6.65-5.1011.311.55-2.88
Dayton-6.66-3.0911.123.57-1.24
Western Illinois-6.82-8.6116.87-1.79-9.13
Connecticut-6.83-2.779.864.06-1.48
Idaho State-7.16-5.6710.771.49-4.41
South Alabama-7.21-5.9911.741.22-6.07
Gardner-Webb-7.33-6.0111.581.32-1.35
Winthrop-7.39-2.0912.315.305.96
Rice-7.45-8.387.61-0.93-6.13
George Washington-7.56-3.2211.254.34-4.74
Texas-El Paso-7.61-4.9511.402.66-3.17
Southern-7.68-11.0610.08-3.38-5.55
IUPUI-7.81-7.608.750.21-7.13
Presbyterian-7.94-11.6610.40-3.72-11.11
North Dakota-7.99-6.4711.541.525.80
Denver-8.01-5.4713.142.54-1.57
Elon-8.03-6.1911.881.84-2.35
Kent State-8.09-6.207.841.89-4.22
New Hampshire-8.27-6.958.471.32-7.84
Fairfield-8.34-4.229.204.12-3.14
Saint Louis-8.48-2.0813.256.40-7.62
North Carolina-Asheville-8.70-4.8611.983.842.09
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville-8.76-9.379.58-0.61-3.14
Bryant-9.02-15.178.73-6.15-2.41
Tennessee-Martin-9.07-9.419.96-0.34-7.56
Army-9.21-8.0813.171.13-2.30
Dartmouth-9.29-10.3510.45-1.06-5.42
Florida A&M-9.49-13.279.85-3.78-8.72
Princeton-9.61-6.2015.443.41-2.44
Kennesaw State-9.64-9.119.240.53-3.23
Longwood-9.64-14.5613.95-4.92-11.01
UC-Riverside-9.67-8.1211.491.55-9.08
Central Michigan-9.69-6.9211.792.770.62
Savannah State-9.84-10.759.56-0.9110.73
Maine-9.86-11.3110.63-1.45-6.63
American-9.91-11.698.82-1.78-5.24
Tennessee Tech-9.97-5.6310.114.34-2.38
Oral Roberts-10.02-5.5413.774.48-1.17
Akron-10.15-8.499.111.66-4.87
Massachusetts-10.36-5.4611.934.90-1.30
Campbell-10.36-6.289.994.081.00
Bradley-10.39-0.8510.369.54-6.45
San Jose State-10.43-9.657.740.78-7.82
Norfolk State-10.74-9.6211.311.12-7.53
Ohio-10.87-5.2314.285.64-3.03
Central Connecticut State-10.96-9.6911.431.27-6.08
Ball State-11.13-2.4015.198.730.44
St. Francis (NY)-11.30-10.8712.260.43-4.70
High Point-11.36-7.5212.803.84-8.60
Charleston Southern-11.36-9.3113.672.05-9.18
Arkansas-Little Rock-11.44-10.0311.381.41-11.99
Jackson State-11.46-14.459.77-2.99-14.71
Marist-11.76-10.3712.571.39-4.87
Air Force-11.81-7.3312.104.48-8.64
Montana State-11.81-8.9212.952.89-3.40
Cleveland State-12.02-10.5311.271.49-7.89
Chicago State-12.09-17.8913.81-5.80-5.33
Cal State Bakersfield-12.41-6.1412.596.27-7.14
North Carolina Central-12.73-10.0511.572.68-10.25
Bethune-Cookman-13.27-9.8512.403.420.56
Morgan State-13.35-10.9414.972.41-5.20
North Florida-13.40-9.1512.094.253.49
Northern Arizona-13.44-12.5811.740.86-4.43
Coppin State-13.61-16.1311.53-2.52-14.32
South Carolina State-13.65-16.3912.17-2.74-5.86
North Carolina A&T-13.77-10.728.713.05-2.65
Morehead State-13.96-9.2612.624.70-1.93
Binghamton-14.02-9.5710.564.45-7.00
Western Carolina-14.20-11.2110.822.99-5.10
Harvard-14.25-4.808.049.45-8.50
Alabama State-14.27-15.8611.17-1.59-5.15
Virginia Military Institute-14.78-13.3511.721.43-8.76
Hampton-15.09-9.0011.616.09-0.20
South Carolina Upstate-15.40-14.9410.620.460.80
Southern Mississippi-15.90-7.2911.628.61-7.67
Arkansas-Pine Bluff-16.11-13.6011.642.51-9.80
Jacksonville-16.14-12.9014.683.24-6.37
Howard-16.19-14.6010.061.59-4.86
Siena-16.55-11.509.535.05-6.29
Citadel-16.82-12.2615.244.566.40
Youngstown State-17.50-12.4617.055.04-1.05
Charlotte-17.67-13.189.954.49-7.08
Detroit Mercy-18.32-13.4410.934.882.61
Cornell-18.47-12.8912.895.58-3.49
Cal Poly-18.61-13.2911.665.32-13.04
Houston Baptist-18.87-14.1314.184.741.68
Alcorn State-19.70-16.2712.433.43-9.27
Samford-19.90-13.379.876.530.11
North Carolina-Wilmington-20.09-10.5811.119.513.67
Northern Illinois-20.90-11.4913.659.41-5.00
Delaware State-21.04-21.5514.32-0.51-12.90
Mount St. Mary's-21.92-11.6710.6410.25-9.13
Mississippi Valley State-22.28-19.3310.622.95-12.71
Northwestern State-23.28-23.0414.530.24-13.73
Alabama A&M-23.71-22.3110.791.40-13.20
Lafayette-30.22-14.9311.1515.29-7.38
Maryland-Eastern Shore-36.54-25.7611.3210.78-17.55