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Just in time for the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I used a statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. A year ago years ago I used the same model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with some success.

The model ratings can be found here: http://jonathantemplin.com/2018-ncaa-mens-college-basketball-division-1-team-ratings/

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament. In the table, the GamesWon column indicates the expected number of games won for a team across all games in the tournament. Each column to the right of GamesWon represents the The proportion of times a team reached each round of the tournament across the 10,000 simulations (or the probability a team reaches a given round).

TeamGamesWonRound64Round32Round16Round8Round4Round2Champion
Virginia3.501.000.950.800.670.500.360.23
Villanova3.291.000.990.820.610.420.280.17
Purdue2.441.000.890.690.450.230.130.07
Michigan State2.341.000.890.610.390.260.130.06
Michigan2.361.000.880.660.380.250.120.06
North Carolina2.411.000.960.680.380.240.110.05
Cincinnati2.061.000.790.600.370.160.090.05
Kansas2.131.000.830.600.380.200.090.04
Duke1.981.000.840.570.290.170.080.04
Gonzaga1.941.000.810.520.330.170.080.03
Tennessee1.791.000.870.500.260.090.050.02
Wichita State1.741.000.860.540.180.090.040.02
Florida1.421.000.680.410.200.080.040.02
Xavier1.941.000.950.570.260.100.040.02
Miami (FL)1.361.000.700.370.180.060.030.01
Arizona1.541.000.790.510.130.060.030.01
Texas Christian1.241.000.700.270.150.080.030.01
Ohio State1.241.000.650.310.170.070.030.01
Kansas State1.131.000.770.170.100.050.020.01
Auburn1.711.000.890.470.230.090.030.01
Texas Tech1.541.000.830.430.190.070.030.01
West Virginia1.161.000.660.320.110.050.020.01
Texas A&M1.061.000.650.240.110.050.020.01
Kentucky1.011.000.630.280.060.020.010.00
Houston1.011.000.660.220.080.030.010.00
Clemson1.091.000.570.300.140.050.010.00
Rhode Island1.121.000.680.290.090.040.010.00
Florida State0.951.000.550.250.100.030.010.00
Virginia Tech0.771.000.570.110.050.020.010.00
Nevada1.001.000.650.230.090.020.010.00
Arkansas0.841.000.570.170.070.020.010.00
Arizona State1.120.700.260.090.040.020.010.00
New Mexico State0.761.000.430.210.090.030.010.00
Seton Hall1.011.000.640.240.100.030.010.00
Missouri0.721.000.450.180.070.020.010.00
Alabama0.531.000.430.070.020.010.000.00
Oklahoma0.461.000.320.110.030.010.000.00
South Dakota State0.521.000.350.110.040.010.000.00
Loyola (IL)0.451.000.300.110.040.010.000.00
Georgia State0.331.000.210.090.030.010.000.00
Providence0.471.000.350.080.030.010.000.00
Butler0.591.000.430.110.040.010.000.00
North Carolina State0.541.000.360.130.040.010.000.00
UCLA0.830.540.180.080.020.000.000.00
Texas0.471.000.350.090.020.000.000.00
Murray State0.471.000.340.100.020.000.000.00
Davidson0.511.000.370.120.020.010.000.00
Iona0.211.000.160.040.010.000.000.00
Pennsylvania0.221.000.170.040.010.000.000.00
San Diego State0.431.000.340.070.010.000.000.00
North Carolina-Greensboro0.281.000.190.070.020.000.000.00
St. Bonaventure0.670.460.140.060.010.000.000.00
Syracuse0.350.300.040.010.000.000.000.00
College of Charleston0.131.000.110.020.000.000.000.00
Bucknell0.141.000.110.020.010.000.000.00
Montana0.181.000.120.050.010.000.000.00
Lipscomb0.051.000.040.010.000.000.000.00
North Carolina Central0.300.290.010.000.000.000.000.00
Texas Southern0.760.710.040.000.000.000.000.00
Marshall0.191.000.140.040.010.000.000.00
Stephen F. Austin0.211.000.170.030.010.000.000.00
Cal State Fullerton0.151.000.110.040.010.000.000.00
Long Island University0.260.260.000.000.000.000.000.00
Radford0.750.740.010.000.000.000.000.00
Creighton0.261.000.230.020.010.000.000.00
Buffalo0.311.000.210.090.010.000.000.00
Wright State0.161.000.130.030.010.000.000.00
Maryland-Baltimore County0.061.000.050.010.000.000.000.00

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