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The latest NCAA Tournament predictions are up and the chaos of the tournament is likely to continue. Although Gonzaga has the highest probability of becoming champion, no team has a greater than 50% chance at making the final four. Benefitting from the losses of Duke and Villanova, Florida now has the second highest chance of making it to the final four, sitting at nearly 41%.

What strikes me is the parity in this year’s top teams. After a relatively un-eventful first round, upsets seemed to happen in the round of 32. Such a result seems due to having a group of very good teams that are capable of beating anyone and another group of teams that aren’t as good. We are now in a spot where only the best teams remain, so expect more upsets to happen for the remainder of the tournament.

The updated model estimates gives the following predictions for the remainder of this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionElite EightFinal FourFinal TwoChampion
Gonzaga1West0.67560.49520.37210.2655
Kansas1Midwest0.67830.40740.22520.0969
Arizona2West0.82650.30970.17290.0963
Florida4East0.59650.41540.16490.0883
UCLA3South0.54250.31330.17560.0784
Michigan7Midwest0.57730.28050.13730.06
North Carolina1South0.5420.25040.12660.0551
Kentucky2South0.45750.24130.1250.0539
Wisconsin8East0.40350.24650.09320.0452
West Virginia4West0.32440.16650.08390.0428
Baylor3East0.64850.24870.08470.0355
Butler4South0.4580.1950.08620.0321
Purdue4Midwest0.32170.15550.06390.0229
Oregon3Midwest0.42270.15660.06020.0194
South Carolina7East0.35150.08940.02180.0065
Xavier11West0.17350.02860.00650.0012

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

 

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