2017 NCAA Tournament Prediction: Get Ready for Bracket Chaos

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/. To download some of the 10,000 model-generated brackets, please visti http://jonathantemplin.com/sports/2017brackets.

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionGames WonRound of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinal 2Champion
Gonzaga1West3.5110.9820.8040.6460.4940.3340.246
Villanova1East2.5410.9430.6870.4150.2650.1390.095
Kentucky2South2.3510.9570.6220.3610.2260.1290.058
Duke2East2.5410.9490.7560.4630.220.0940.054
Saint Mary's (CA)7West2.0710.9060.5110.3780.1530.080.047
UCLA3South2.310.9570.6510.3350.2110.1070.04
Kansas1Midwest2.5210.9740.7380.4380.2170.1180.039
Virginia5East1.7510.8310.4510.230.1350.0640.038
Louisville2Midwest1.9910.9490.4650.2860.1650.0930.036
Arizona2West1.9410.9150.4730.3290.1280.0610.035
Oklahoma State10Midwest1.3210.5690.3220.1990.1250.0720.034
Florida4East1.9410.9630.5270.2380.130.0490.029
North Carolina1South2.0310.8860.5650.3230.1510.0740.026
Iowa State5Midwest1.4310.6710.3820.2050.1010.0530.022
West Virginia4West1.5210.7790.4420.1610.0820.0390.021
Purdue4Midwest1.7210.8720.4680.2180.0980.050.018
Baylor3East1.8710.9010.5450.2610.1060.0370.018
Creighton6Midwest1.1210.5490.3120.1370.0720.0380.015
Butler4South1.4510.7110.3840.2080.0910.040.014
Michigan7Midwest0.8610.4310.2040.1140.060.0330.013
Southern Methodist6East1.3710.730.360.1710.0710.0270.013
Wichita State10South1.3210.7490.3050.1420.0790.0330.01
Oregon3Midwest1.5310.8360.4160.1610.0720.0330.009
Kansas State11aSouth1.510.66270.4630.20.0940.0550.0250.009
Minnesota5South1.0410.5160.2880.1410.0570.0260.008
Notre Dame5West1.5410.8880.4950.1010.0390.0130.007
Maryland6West1.7210.8550.6040.1890.0480.0170.007
Wisconsin8East0.8510.5430.1820.070.0330.0130.007
Rhode Island11Midwest0.8510.4510.2380.0930.040.020.006
Middle Tennessee12South0.9210.4840.2530.1240.0420.0130.004
Miami (FL)8Midwest0.9610.6510.1950.0770.0280.0110.003
Florida State3West1.2310.7870.3130.0930.0220.0080.003
Northwestern8West0.6910.5350.0930.0410.0160.0060.003
Arkansas8South0.910.5210.230.1050.0340.0120.003
Vanderbilt9West0.6310.4650.10.0430.0160.0060.002
Virginia Tech9East0.6510.4570.1210.0430.0160.0060.002
Marquette10East0.8410.5940.1590.0650.0160.0050.002
Nevada12Midwest0.510.3290.1160.0370.0130.0040.001
Cincinnati6South0.4910.350.0910.0320.0140.0030.001
Seton Hall9South0.7710.4790.1940.0740.0190.0050.001
Wake Forest11bSouth0.610.33730.1870.0530.0190.0090.0040.001
Michigan State9Midwest0.4410.3490.0630.020.0040.0010
Vermont13Midwest0.1710.1280.0340.0060.0020.0010
Iona14Midwest0.2110.1650.0350.0080.0020.0010
Jacksonville State15Midwest0.0610.0510.0090.001000
North Carolina Central16aMidwest0.80.770.0250.0050.001000
UC-Davis16bMidwest0.230.20.00100000
Virginia Commonwealth10West0.110.0950.0080.001000
Xavier11West0.2310.1450.0740.0090.00100
Princeton12West0.1610.1120.0380.0050.00100
Bucknell13West0.2510.2210.0250.002000
Florida Gulf Coast14West0.2210.2130.0090000
North Dakota15West0.0910.0850.0070.001000
South Dakota State16West0.0210.0180.0040000
South Carolina7East0.510.4060.0740.0140.00200
Southern California11aEast0.580.45470.0980.0190.0050.00100
Providence11bEast0.790.54530.1720.0550.0170.0040.0010
North Carolina-Wilmington12East0.1910.1690.0140.002000
East Tennessee State13East0.0510.0370.0080.001000
New Mexico State14East0.1210.0990.0210.0030.00100
Troy15East0.0610.0510.010.002000
Mount St. Mary's16aEast0.410.41120.00100000
New Orleans16bEast0.660.58880.0560.0110.001000
Dayton7South0.3510.2510.070.0170.0080.0020
Winthrop13South0.3910.290.0750.0230.0050.0010
Kent State14South0.0510.0430.0040000
Northern Kentucky15South0.0510.0430.0030000
Texas Southern16South0.1310.1140.0110.002000