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2018 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Division 1 Team Ratings

Team Rating Estimates

Team ratings are based on a model factoring in team performance and team consistency. Ratings are produced by taking the estimated team parameters (across 10,000 iterations). The rating value represents the number of standard deviations a team will score above or below the score of an average team.

Ratings using games played up until March 5th are shown in the table below. The table contains the following information:

  • Rating: The projected overall rating of each team
  • Scoring: The estimated difference in points scored compared to an average team overall  (higher values indicates a stronger offense)
  • Scoring Consistency: An index of how consistently a team scored as compared to an average team (higher values means more consistency; positive values means consistency is greater than average; negative values means consistency is less than average)
  • Defending: The estimated difference in points given up compared to an average team overall (lower values indicates a stronger defense)
  • Defending Consistency: An index of how consistently a team gave up points as compared to an average team (higher values means more consistency; positive values means consistency is greater than average; negative values means consistency is less than average)

Tournament predictions based on the model are located here: https://jonathantemplin.com/2018-ncaa-tournament-predictions/

Estimated Team Ratings for Games Through March 10, 2018

TeamRatingScoringScoring ConsistencyDefendingDefending Consistency
Virginia32.2125.089.54-7.131.29
Michigan28.8021.0712.35-7.737.28
Villanova24.9424.5510.99-0.3915.81
Florida24.2716.9414.19-7.337.75
Miami (FL)23.6016.479.81-7.139.33
Georgetown23.1611.6410.86-11.5210.37
Cincinnati22.8820.4411.88-2.44-0.56
North Carolina22.1120.3611.63-1.7513.41
Gonzaga20.5118.8612.90-1.6512.21
Tennessee19.6717.5111.29-2.164.20
Southern California19.0013.9411.91-5.066.53
Wichita State18.8417.1910.67-1.6511.92
Purdue18.6421.0711.822.4313.89
Arizona18.6316.6610.26-1.9711.52
Kansas State17.9315.8310.97-2.105.71
New Mexico State17.2712.549.02-4.734.76
Rhode Island17.2313.929.34-3.319.03
Penn State17.0114.4410.34-2.575.60
Texas Christian16.5416.698.900.1513.75
Marquette16.4112.6213.34-3.7913.90
Kansas16.0918.8714.212.789.22
Georgia State16.058.3914.17-7.66-1.14
Michigan State15.1021.0112.115.917.91
Marshall14.396.3410.36-8.0510.92
Ohio State14.3815.0914.760.716.64
Notre Dame14.3513.5812.83-0.772.35
Texas A&M14.1514.4512.560.305.75
Auburn13.6314.779.871.1411.48
Texas Tech13.6115.4112.621.803.56
Florida Gulf Coast13.536.8813.49-6.653.27
San Diego13.536.6210.72-6.912.21
Fresno State13.278.6610.93-4.612.70
Florida State13.2612.7211.00-0.549.37
Clemson13.1813.909.410.722.64
Arizona State13.1612.4411.25-0.7214.93
Wisconsin13.1211.0110.77-2.11-3.48
Louisville12.8412.0212.11-0.826.68
Texas12.779.868.47-2.910.49
Virginia Tech12.6212.3112.70-0.319.81
Murray State12.589.779.36-2.813.01
Nevada12.4713.3810.750.9111.24
Providence12.468.9911.83-3.471.11
Buffalo12.388.5810.33-3.8012.70
Xavier12.2315.3510.953.1211.02
Vermont11.878.386.98-3.492.85
Maryland11.8312.337.440.506.24
East Tennessee State11.798.8711.83-2.92-1.13
Indiana State11.525.7013.01-5.824.26
Louisiana11.519.4614.60-2.057.08
Kentucky11.4513.4910.992.045.30
Furman11.347.4512.02-3.895.12
Northern Colorado11.307.1011.53-4.204.37
Memphis11.285.6910.82-5.591.92
Wofford11.104.0312.73-7.07-0.45
Loyola (IL)10.9410.4212.33-0.520.27
Seton Hall10.9112.388.741.4710.57
Hartford10.892.1714.79-8.72-0.07
Liberty10.653.2211.67-7.43-3.35
Robert Morris10.55-1.6312.30-12.18-3.95
Wright State10.544.1610.46-6.382.21
Duke10.4118.4712.988.0616.09
Saint Joseph's10.025.5713.62-4.454.64
Oklahoma State9.8810.5911.210.716.60
Nebraska9.8410.5412.470.701.93
Western Kentucky9.7010.3811.770.686.56
Southeast Missouri State9.25-0.4910.41-9.745.79
St. John's (NY)9.048.7713.18-0.273.76
William & Mary9.043.7015.09-5.345.68
South Carolina9.038.6210.35-0.410.28
Cal State Fullerton9.033.6412.11-5.393.62
Temple8.857.8513.75-1.004.30
North Dakota State8.723.3614.10-5.360.13
Middle Tennessee8.708.7812.020.080.66
UCLA8.689.9010.261.2212.86
Iona8.655.0710.88-3.589.03
Toledo8.513.5913.43-4.926.01
St. Bonaventure8.348.799.780.454.40
Nevada-Las Vegas8.337.3814.12-0.958.40
Missouri8.1811.2111.833.031.83
South Dakota8.039.589.491.555.51
DePaul8.035.1410.13-2.89-1.11
Iowa State8.006.0312.08-1.976.30
Belmont7.807.8412.750.043.78
Wyoming7.715.3611.30-2.357.69
Arkansas7.6911.9211.964.2310.60
South Dakota State7.589.4210.511.8413.76
Alabama7.549.2114.331.672.90
Idaho7.433.5413.31-3.89-0.69
North Carolina-Greensboro7.226.6311.65-0.591.36
Northeastern7.186.2211.07-0.960.06
Jacksonville State7.033.0814.54-3.95-5.47
Illinois6.956.4213.65-0.533.18
West Virginia6.8914.7815.147.898.92
Washington6.786.6612.99-0.121.63
Valparaiso6.733.9211.62-2.812.02
Eastern Michigan6.670.358.99-6.32-6.90
Georgia6.626.0211.21-0.60-5.54
Sacred Heart6.58-4.8912.02-11.47-3.13
Northern Kentucky6.486.6512.970.173.87
Minnesota6.395.7411.87-0.657.64
Houston6.3412.2713.435.937.00
Western Michigan6.34-0.1111.52-6.45-0.17
Wake Forest6.246.6611.370.422.80
Boston College6.217.2511.051.045.41
George Mason6.18-0.229.79-6.400.28
San Francisco6.042.6310.75-3.41-3.05
Syracuse6.027.927.631.900.65
Niagara5.731.1613.66-4.5710.30
Missouri State5.675.7311.950.060.01
UC-Davis5.612.4111.81-3.20-0.87
Brigham Young5.516.8412.511.33-1.24
Coastal Carolina5.49-0.569.40-6.05-0.03
Davidson5.469.0513.633.596.56
Milwaukee5.450.1914.44-5.26-2.13
Richmond5.241.6512.41-3.593.50
Baylor5.079.4410.724.37-0.31
Towson4.881.4810.72-3.400.62
Oklahoma4.839.2111.454.3811.66
Lipscomb4.750.0310.04-4.728.38
Albany (NY)4.461.8910.34-2.57-1.81
Duquesne4.450.1512.25-4.30-0.42
North Carolina State4.429.1311.204.7110.72
Alabama-Birmingham4.405.5115.761.113.21
Pacific4.391.9611.92-2.43-2.54
Indiana4.347.9112.493.570.70
Maryland-Baltimore County4.14-0.0416.18-4.18-3.36
Navy3.97-2.7312.88-6.70-7.33
Northern Iowa3.954.187.600.23-8.30
Sacramento State3.73-3.9912.42-7.72-7.96
Oregon State3.724.489.200.76-2.32
Green Bay3.69-3.648.94-7.335.07
Mercer3.474.2410.920.773.52
IPFW3.471.4312.61-2.045.39
Georgia Tech3.394.559.891.16-0.77
Pennsylvania3.383.8911.440.512.62
Texas State3.33-1.629.01-4.95-8.08
Butler3.289.7211.856.444.22
Texas-Arlington3.152.8313.87-0.325.48
Monmouth3.030.5511.77-2.482.99
Bowling Green State2.97-2.1012.49-5.072.96
Yale2.93-1.4110.53-4.340.56
Quinnipiac2.82-3.028.90-5.840.99
Utah2.816.6710.863.86-0.56
Grambling2.80-7.0614.45-9.86-2.36
Grand Canyon2.794.238.771.440.14
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi2.71-7.7113.93-10.42-6.21
Boise State2.687.3311.634.650.76
UC-Santa Barbara2.662.7910.680.135.98
Portland State2.340.988.68-1.369.67
Bucknell2.344.5212.192.187.92
Tennessee State2.32-1.6314.24-3.95-6.94
Canisius2.143.249.401.100.09
Rutgers1.803.4512.781.65-6.55
Mississippi State1.734.3711.132.640.28
Eastern Kentucky1.71-5.259.96-6.96-0.12
University of California1.40-2.3415.37-3.74-6.71
Lehigh1.35-3.4710.60-4.825.09
College of Charleston1.332.6110.321.28-1.56
Montana1.206.649.585.441.89
Colorado State1.17-1.9812.18-3.152.45
Illinois-Chicago1.11-1.5010.90-2.611.42
Louisiana Tech1.071.728.830.65-1.62
Stanford0.894.1711.643.281.30
Stony Brook0.88-2.279.18-3.15-5.32
Seattle0.831.4613.310.632.88
Iowa0.555.399.884.8410.89
Manhattan0.50-2.6510.32-3.15-8.06
Hofstra0.460.5912.020.132.65
Virginia Commonwealth0.411.9410.601.535.27
Weber State0.301.2811.690.983.47
Georgia Southern0.18-0.339.93-0.51-0.66
James Madison0.05-2.277.90-2.32-1.49
Mississippi-0.092.7110.922.807.75
Boston University-0.13-5.4812.66-5.35-3.67
Utah State-0.181.249.361.42-2.24
Stephen F. Austin-0.222.7010.162.922.95
Brown-0.38-5.5611.20-5.180.98
Old Dominion-0.406.3612.346.76-2.16
Santa Clara-0.43-5.1315.55-4.70-8.59
Vanderbilt-0.483.559.664.03-1.12
Delaware-0.49-2.6310.14-2.14-3.86
Tulane-0.53-0.4211.100.110.45
North Texas-0.61-2.8411.51-2.23-4.26
Central Arkansas-0.66-3.1314.28-2.478.18
Loyola Marymount-0.76-2.827.75-2.06-1.22
South Florida-0.79-4.3214.64-3.53-6.22
Pittsburgh-0.87-2.3411.60-1.47-5.91
Hawaii-1.02-2.1710.98-1.15-2.66
Texas Southern-1.12-3.4010.39-2.283.57
Florida Atlantic-1.18-4.6611.97-3.48-5.76
Saint Mary's (CA)-1.268.0511.769.311.90
Rider-1.321.2711.912.597.01
Fordham-1.33-4.8511.24-3.52-6.69
Southeastern Louisiana-1.35-2.5111.52-1.16-3.52
Radford-1.36-0.878.190.49-7.79
Louisiana State-1.484.6913.346.176.53
Louisiana-Monroe-1.52-3.2312.17-1.71-8.73
Florida International-1.65-2.9110.17-1.26-1.12
New Mexico-1.803.6613.175.467.58
Chattanooga-1.85-6.789.86-4.93-5.14
Oakland-1.98-2.0411.16-0.061.34
Illinois State-2.000.4913.702.490.75
Central Florida-2.072.009.564.07-8.32
Southern Illinois-2.121.4913.063.61-0.05
Abilene Christian-2.20-3.5113.66-1.31-5.16
East Carolina-2.21-8.0713.16-5.86-3.11
Troy-2.26-0.7210.001.54-1.89
Lamar-2.29-2.0613.850.23-3.44
Oregon-2.305.8813.038.182.17
Northwestern-2.304.9114.047.21-4.04
Drake-2.31-0.5812.851.732.13
Prairie View-2.35-6.0411.71-3.69-0.85
Fairleigh Dickinson-2.36-6.249.70-3.88-2.74
Colorado-2.424.0811.966.50-1.20
Tulsa-2.512.3510.044.86-0.96
Portland-2.52-4.3710.14-1.85-5.66
Long Beach State-2.53-3.5412.10-1.011.82
Colgate-2.57-3.029.76-0.45-2.44
Massachusetts-Lowell-2.67-6.0411.66-3.373.08
Southern Methodist-2.913.7611.576.67-3.31
Southern Utah-3.25-5.679.59-2.42-0.87
Columbia-3.37-4.719.14-1.343.47
Washington State-3.43-2.0212.801.414.59
Saint Francis (PA)-3.67-3.4015.040.271.73
Cal State Northridge-3.88-8.8610.03-4.98-6.20
Nicholls State-4.01-2.719.671.305.58
Sam Houston State-4.06-4.529.39-0.46-2.67
Incarnate Word-4.30-12.559.15-8.25-4.34
Missouri-Kansas City-4.48-7.7713.86-3.29-2.85
Pepperdine-4.53-6.428.65-1.89-1.60
New Orleans-4.69-7.4710.95-2.78-7.37
Arkansas State-4.72-7.2812.43-2.56-2.34
UC-Irvine-4.901.1511.096.05-5.36
Utah Valley-4.911.7613.526.672.71
La Salle-4.92-2.558.742.370.88
Eastern Illinois-4.99-6.049.54-1.05-10.37
San Diego State-5.036.0812.3811.113.60
Appalachian State-5.11-2.4012.952.714.36
Stetson-5.31-8.2112.68-2.900.30
Wagner-5.40-3.4312.091.97-4.66
Saint Peter's-5.47-3.0612.542.41-13.44
NJIT-5.60-5.929.73-0.32-4.23
Miami (OH)-5.69-2.9910.482.70-6.52
Eastern Washington-5.821.3410.407.161.12
Nebraska-Omaha-5.82-6.658.68-0.833.52
Holy Cross-5.82-7.499.39-1.67-9.76
Long Island University-5.84-6.2210.13-0.382.02
Evansville-6.050.0411.286.09-6.58
Creighton-6.197.6210.2213.818.99
Texas-San Antonio-6.20-2.3012.203.906.39
McNeese State-6.27-8.5513.37-2.28-1.35
Texas-Rio Grande Valley-6.42-5.8012.470.621.90
Loyola (MD)-6.45-10.6710.65-4.22-6.90
Austin Peay-6.55-3.7911.572.760.07
Drexel-6.65-5.1011.311.55-2.88
Dayton-6.66-3.0911.123.57-1.24
Western Illinois-6.82-8.6116.87-1.79-9.13
Connecticut-6.83-2.779.864.06-1.48
Idaho State-7.16-5.6710.771.49-4.41
South Alabama-7.21-5.9911.741.22-6.07
Gardner-Webb-7.33-6.0111.581.32-1.35
Winthrop-7.39-2.0912.315.305.96
Rice-7.45-8.387.61-0.93-6.13
George Washington-7.56-3.2211.254.34-4.74
Texas-El Paso-7.61-4.9511.402.66-3.17
Southern-7.68-11.0610.08-3.38-5.55
IUPUI-7.81-7.608.750.21-7.13
Presbyterian-7.94-11.6610.40-3.72-11.11
North Dakota-7.99-6.4711.541.525.80
Denver-8.01-5.4713.142.54-1.57
Elon-8.03-6.1911.881.84-2.35
Kent State-8.09-6.207.841.89-4.22
New Hampshire-8.27-6.958.471.32-7.84
Fairfield-8.34-4.229.204.12-3.14
Saint Louis-8.48-2.0813.256.40-7.62
North Carolina-Asheville-8.70-4.8611.983.842.09
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville-8.76-9.379.58-0.61-3.14
Bryant-9.02-15.178.73-6.15-2.41
Tennessee-Martin-9.07-9.419.96-0.34-7.56
Army-9.21-8.0813.171.13-2.30
Dartmouth-9.29-10.3510.45-1.06-5.42
Florida A&M-9.49-13.279.85-3.78-8.72
Princeton-9.61-6.2015.443.41-2.44
Kennesaw State-9.64-9.119.240.53-3.23
Longwood-9.64-14.5613.95-4.92-11.01
UC-Riverside-9.67-8.1211.491.55-9.08
Central Michigan-9.69-6.9211.792.770.62
Savannah State-9.84-10.759.56-0.9110.73
Maine-9.86-11.3110.63-1.45-6.63
American-9.91-11.698.82-1.78-5.24
Tennessee Tech-9.97-5.6310.114.34-2.38
Oral Roberts-10.02-5.5413.774.48-1.17
Akron-10.15-8.499.111.66-4.87
Massachusetts-10.36-5.4611.934.90-1.30
Campbell-10.36-6.289.994.081.00
Bradley-10.39-0.8510.369.54-6.45
San Jose State-10.43-9.657.740.78-7.82
Norfolk State-10.74-9.6211.311.12-7.53
Ohio-10.87-5.2314.285.64-3.03
Central Connecticut State-10.96-9.6911.431.27-6.08
Ball State-11.13-2.4015.198.730.44
St. Francis (NY)-11.30-10.8712.260.43-4.70
High Point-11.36-7.5212.803.84-8.60
Charleston Southern-11.36-9.3113.672.05-9.18
Arkansas-Little Rock-11.44-10.0311.381.41-11.99
Jackson State-11.46-14.459.77-2.99-14.71
Marist-11.76-10.3712.571.39-4.87
Air Force-11.81-7.3312.104.48-8.64
Montana State-11.81-8.9212.952.89-3.40
Cleveland State-12.02-10.5311.271.49-7.89
Chicago State-12.09-17.8913.81-5.80-5.33
Cal State Bakersfield-12.41-6.1412.596.27-7.14
North Carolina Central-12.73-10.0511.572.68-10.25
Bethune-Cookman-13.27-9.8512.403.420.56
Morgan State-13.35-10.9414.972.41-5.20
North Florida-13.40-9.1512.094.253.49
Northern Arizona-13.44-12.5811.740.86-4.43
Coppin State-13.61-16.1311.53-2.52-14.32
South Carolina State-13.65-16.3912.17-2.74-5.86
North Carolina A&T-13.77-10.728.713.05-2.65
Morehead State-13.96-9.2612.624.70-1.93
Binghamton-14.02-9.5710.564.45-7.00
Western Carolina-14.20-11.2110.822.99-5.10
Harvard-14.25-4.808.049.45-8.50
Alabama State-14.27-15.8611.17-1.59-5.15
Virginia Military Institute-14.78-13.3511.721.43-8.76
Hampton-15.09-9.0011.616.09-0.20
South Carolina Upstate-15.40-14.9410.620.460.80
Southern Mississippi-15.90-7.2911.628.61-7.67
Arkansas-Pine Bluff-16.11-13.6011.642.51-9.80
Jacksonville-16.14-12.9014.683.24-6.37
Howard-16.19-14.6010.061.59-4.86
Siena-16.55-11.509.535.05-6.29
Citadel-16.82-12.2615.244.566.40
Youngstown State-17.50-12.4617.055.04-1.05
Charlotte-17.67-13.189.954.49-7.08
Detroit Mercy-18.32-13.4410.934.882.61
Cornell-18.47-12.8912.895.58-3.49
Cal Poly-18.61-13.2911.665.32-13.04
Houston Baptist-18.87-14.1314.184.741.68
Alcorn State-19.70-16.2712.433.43-9.27
Samford-19.90-13.379.876.530.11
North Carolina-Wilmington-20.09-10.5811.119.513.67
Northern Illinois-20.90-11.4913.659.41-5.00
Delaware State-21.04-21.5514.32-0.51-12.90
Mount St. Mary's-21.92-11.6710.6410.25-9.13
Mississippi Valley State-22.28-19.3310.622.95-12.71
Northwestern State-23.28-23.0414.530.24-13.73
Alabama A&M-23.71-22.3110.791.40-13.20
Lafayette-30.22-14.9311.1515.29-7.38
Maryland-Eastern Shore-36.54-25.7611.3210.78-17.55



2018 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Just in time for the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I used a statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. A year ago years ago I used the same model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with some success.

The model ratings can be found here: https://jonathantemplin.com/2018-ncaa-mens-college-basketball-division-1-team-ratings/

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament. In the table, the GamesWon column indicates the expected number of games won for a team across all games in the tournament. Each column to the right of GamesWon represents the The proportion of times a team reached each round of the tournament across the 10,000 simulations (or the probability a team reaches a given round).

TeamGamesWonRound64Round32Round16Round8Round4Round2Champion
Virginia3.501.000.950.800.670.500.360.23
Villanova3.291.000.990.820.610.420.280.17
Purdue2.441.000.890.690.450.230.130.07
Michigan State2.341.000.890.610.390.260.130.06
Michigan2.361.000.880.660.380.250.120.06
North Carolina2.411.000.960.680.380.240.110.05
Cincinnati2.061.000.790.600.370.160.090.05
Kansas2.131.000.830.600.380.200.090.04
Duke1.981.000.840.570.290.170.080.04
Gonzaga1.941.000.810.520.330.170.080.03
Tennessee1.791.000.870.500.260.090.050.02
Wichita State1.741.000.860.540.180.090.040.02
Florida1.421.000.680.410.200.080.040.02
Xavier1.941.000.950.570.260.100.040.02
Miami (FL)1.361.000.700.370.180.060.030.01
Arizona1.541.000.790.510.130.060.030.01
Texas Christian1.241.000.700.270.150.080.030.01
Ohio State1.241.000.650.310.170.070.030.01
Kansas State1.131.000.770.170.100.050.020.01
Auburn1.711.000.890.470.230.090.030.01
Texas Tech1.541.000.830.430.190.070.030.01
West Virginia1.161.000.660.320.110.050.020.01
Texas A&M1.061.000.650.240.110.050.020.01
Kentucky1.011.000.630.280.060.020.010.00
Houston1.011.000.660.220.080.030.010.00
Clemson1.091.000.570.300.140.050.010.00
Rhode Island1.121.000.680.290.090.040.010.00
Florida State0.951.000.550.250.100.030.010.00
Virginia Tech0.771.000.570.110.050.020.010.00
Nevada1.001.000.650.230.090.020.010.00
Arkansas0.841.000.570.170.070.020.010.00
Arizona State1.120.700.260.090.040.020.010.00
New Mexico State0.761.000.430.210.090.030.010.00
Seton Hall1.011.000.640.240.100.030.010.00
Missouri0.721.000.450.180.070.020.010.00
Alabama0.531.000.430.070.020.010.000.00
Oklahoma0.461.000.320.110.030.010.000.00
South Dakota State0.521.000.350.110.040.010.000.00
Loyola (IL)0.451.000.300.110.040.010.000.00
Georgia State0.331.000.210.090.030.010.000.00
Providence0.471.000.350.080.030.010.000.00
Butler0.591.000.430.110.040.010.000.00
North Carolina State0.541.000.360.130.040.010.000.00
UCLA0.830.540.180.080.020.000.000.00
Texas0.471.000.350.090.020.000.000.00
Murray State0.471.000.340.100.020.000.000.00
Davidson0.511.000.370.120.020.010.000.00
Iona0.211.000.160.040.010.000.000.00
Pennsylvania0.221.000.170.040.010.000.000.00
San Diego State0.431.000.340.070.010.000.000.00
North Carolina-Greensboro0.281.000.190.070.020.000.000.00
St. Bonaventure0.670.460.140.060.010.000.000.00
Syracuse0.350.300.040.010.000.000.000.00
College of Charleston0.131.000.110.020.000.000.000.00
Bucknell0.141.000.110.020.010.000.000.00
Montana0.181.000.120.050.010.000.000.00
Lipscomb0.051.000.040.010.000.000.000.00
North Carolina Central0.300.290.010.000.000.000.000.00
Texas Southern0.760.710.040.000.000.000.000.00
Marshall0.191.000.140.040.010.000.000.00
Stephen F. Austin0.211.000.170.030.010.000.000.00
Cal State Fullerton0.151.000.110.040.010.000.000.00
Long Island University0.260.260.000.000.000.000.000.00
Radford0.750.740.010.000.000.000.000.00
Creighton0.261.000.230.020.010.000.000.00
Buffalo0.311.000.210.090.010.000.000.00
Wright State0.161.000.130.030.010.000.000.00
Maryland-Baltimore County0.061.000.050.010.000.000.000.00



Latest NCAA Tournament Predictions: Still No Overwhelming Favorite

The latest NCAA Tournament predictions are up and the chaos of the tournament is likely to continue. Although Gonzaga has the highest probability of becoming champion, no team has a greater than 50% chance at making the final four. Benefitting from the losses of Duke and Villanova, Florida now has the second highest chance of making it to the final four, sitting at nearly 41%.

What strikes me is the parity in this year’s top teams. After a relatively un-eventful first round, upsets seemed to happen in the round of 32. Such a result seems due to having a group of very good teams that are capable of beating anyone and another group of teams that aren’t as good. We are now in a spot where only the best teams remain, so expect more upsets to happen for the remainder of the tournament.

The updated model estimates gives the following predictions for the remainder of this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionElite EightFinal FourFinal TwoChampion
Gonzaga1West0.67560.49520.37210.2655
Kansas1Midwest0.67830.40740.22520.0969
Arizona2West0.82650.30970.17290.0963
Florida4East0.59650.41540.16490.0883
UCLA3South0.54250.31330.17560.0784
Michigan7Midwest0.57730.28050.13730.06
North Carolina1South0.5420.25040.12660.0551
Kentucky2South0.45750.24130.1250.0539
Wisconsin8East0.40350.24650.09320.0452
West Virginia4West0.32440.16650.08390.0428
Baylor3East0.64850.24870.08470.0355
Butler4South0.4580.1950.08620.0321
Purdue4Midwest0.32170.15550.06390.0229
Oregon3Midwest0.42270.15660.06020.0194
South Carolina7East0.35150.08940.02180.0065
Xavier11West0.17350.02860.00650.0012

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

 




2017 NCAA Tournament Prediction: Get Ready for Bracket Chaos

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionGames WonRound of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinal 2Champion
Gonzaga1West3.5110.9820.8040.6460.4940.3340.246
Villanova1East2.5410.9430.6870.4150.2650.1390.095
Kentucky2South2.3510.9570.6220.3610.2260.1290.058
Duke2East2.5410.9490.7560.4630.220.0940.054
Saint Mary's (CA)7West2.0710.9060.5110.3780.1530.080.047
UCLA3South2.310.9570.6510.3350.2110.1070.04
Kansas1Midwest2.5210.9740.7380.4380.2170.1180.039
Virginia5East1.7510.8310.4510.230.1350.0640.038
Louisville2Midwest1.9910.9490.4650.2860.1650.0930.036
Arizona2West1.9410.9150.4730.3290.1280.0610.035
Oklahoma State10Midwest1.3210.5690.3220.1990.1250.0720.034
Florida4East1.9410.9630.5270.2380.130.0490.029
North Carolina1South2.0310.8860.5650.3230.1510.0740.026
Iowa State5Midwest1.4310.6710.3820.2050.1010.0530.022
West Virginia4West1.5210.7790.4420.1610.0820.0390.021
Purdue4Midwest1.7210.8720.4680.2180.0980.050.018
Baylor3East1.8710.9010.5450.2610.1060.0370.018
Creighton6Midwest1.1210.5490.3120.1370.0720.0380.015
Butler4South1.4510.7110.3840.2080.0910.040.014
Michigan7Midwest0.8610.4310.2040.1140.060.0330.013
Southern Methodist6East1.3710.730.360.1710.0710.0270.013
Wichita State10South1.3210.7490.3050.1420.0790.0330.01
Oregon3Midwest1.5310.8360.4160.1610.0720.0330.009
Kansas State11aSouth1.510.66270.4630.20.0940.0550.0250.009
Minnesota5South1.0410.5160.2880.1410.0570.0260.008
Notre Dame5West1.5410.8880.4950.1010.0390.0130.007
Maryland6West1.7210.8550.6040.1890.0480.0170.007
Wisconsin8East0.8510.5430.1820.070.0330.0130.007
Rhode Island11Midwest0.8510.4510.2380.0930.040.020.006
Middle Tennessee12South0.9210.4840.2530.1240.0420.0130.004
Miami (FL)8Midwest0.9610.6510.1950.0770.0280.0110.003
Florida State3West1.2310.7870.3130.0930.0220.0080.003
Northwestern8West0.6910.5350.0930.0410.0160.0060.003
Arkansas8South0.910.5210.230.1050.0340.0120.003
Vanderbilt9West0.6310.4650.10.0430.0160.0060.002
Virginia Tech9East0.6510.4570.1210.0430.0160.0060.002
Marquette10East0.8410.5940.1590.0650.0160.0050.002
Nevada12Midwest0.510.3290.1160.0370.0130.0040.001
Cincinnati6South0.4910.350.0910.0320.0140.0030.001
Seton Hall9South0.7710.4790.1940.0740.0190.0050.001
Wake Forest11bSouth0.610.33730.1870.0530.0190.0090.0040.001
Michigan State9Midwest0.4410.3490.0630.020.0040.0010
Vermont13Midwest0.1710.1280.0340.0060.0020.0010
Iona14Midwest0.2110.1650.0350.0080.0020.0010
Jacksonville State15Midwest0.0610.0510.0090.001000
North Carolina Central16aMidwest0.80.770.0250.0050.001000
UC-Davis16bMidwest0.230.20.00100000
Virginia Commonwealth10West0.110.0950.0080.001000
Xavier11West0.2310.1450.0740.0090.00100
Princeton12West0.1610.1120.0380.0050.00100
Bucknell13West0.2510.2210.0250.002000
Florida Gulf Coast14West0.2210.2130.0090000
North Dakota15West0.0910.0850.0070.001000
South Dakota State16West0.0210.0180.0040000
South Carolina7East0.510.4060.0740.0140.00200
Southern California11aEast0.580.45470.0980.0190.0050.00100
Providence11bEast0.790.54530.1720.0550.0170.0040.0010
North Carolina-Wilmington12East0.1910.1690.0140.002000
East Tennessee State13East0.0510.0370.0080.001000
New Mexico State14East0.1210.0990.0210.0030.00100
Troy15East0.0610.0510.010.002000
Mount St. Mary's16aEast0.410.41120.00100000
New Orleans16bEast0.660.58880.0560.0110.001000
Dayton7South0.3510.2510.070.0170.0080.0020
Winthrop13South0.3910.290.0750.0230.0050.0010
Kent State14South0.0510.0430.0040000
Northern Kentucky15South0.0510.0430.0030000
Texas Southern16South0.1310.1140.0110.002000



2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

 




2017 Statistics Workshops: Diagnostic Modeling and Multilevel Longitudinal

Learn from instructors who wrote the book(s) on the topics! All workshops are given in a relaxed atmosphere with ample time for one-on-one interaction with the instructors.

Stats on the Beach is a workshop series taught by Lesa Hoffman and Jonathan Templin (co-founders of AnalyticAble LLC). In 2017 we are offering two workshops, located in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:
  • Diagnostic Measurement (May 22-25, by Jonathan Templin)
  • Introduction to Longitudinal Multilevel Models (May 30-June 2, by Lesa Hoffman)
Our format for each includes separate morning and late afternoon sessions, with a long mid-day break so you can let the content sink in (or meet with us individually) while enjoying the beach. For more information, please visit our website: StatsOnTheBeach.com
Please send a link to this announcement to anyone who might be interested, and let us know if you have any questions!



R Functions for Estimation of the LCDM in Mplus

The R functions are used to build, run, and parse Mplus syntax for estimation of the LCDM. The functions to build the R syntax were created by Andre Rupp and Oliver Wilhelm with additions for parsing and computing attribute reliability contributed by Jonathan Templin

The example will run if all files are put into the same folder.




An Introduction to Clustering and Classification Methods (EPSY 905; Spring 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 14 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Vermunt & Magidson (2002)
  • McCutcheon (2002)
Homework



Principal Components Analysis and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring, 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 13 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Johnson & Wichern (2002), Chs. 8 & 9
Homework



Mixed Models Incorporate Repeated Measures and Multivariate ANOVA (EPSY 905; Spring 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 12 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Maxwell & Delaney (2004), Ch. 12-15
  • Wright (1998)
Homework