Although KU’s loss yesterday means basketball exist to many here in Lawrence, Kansas, there still is a tournament going on and 16 teams left. Here is a brief update on the model predictions for the Sweet 16. Again, this uses the Bradley-Terry model predictions using methods described in this post.
I’ll update the model results for each remaining round and recap the accuracy of the model predictions at the end of the tournament. It is interesting to compare this model’s predictions with those from other prediction systems, such as Ken Pomeroy’s log 5.
Overall, Kentucky appears to be the overwhelming favorite. Their likely opponent will be the team that emerges from the South: most likely Duke or Gonzaga.
| Team | B-T Effect | Prob Elite 8 | Prob Final 4 | Prob Final Game | Prob Winner | Expected #Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 6.42 | 0.9083 | 0.7322 | 0.5641 | 0.4632 | 4.6678 |
| Wisconsin | 5.28 | 0.7948 | 0.5034 | 0.1921 | 0.126 | 3.6163 |
| Gonzaga | 4.92 | 0.8716 | 0.4679 | 0.3326 | 0.1137 | 3.7858 |
| Duke | 5.01 | 0.7264 | 0.4103 | 0.2889 | 0.0987 | 3.5243 |
| Arizona | 4.90 | 0.8083 | 0.3847 | 0.1185 | 0.071 | 3.3825 |
| Notre Dame | 4.64 | 0.5653 | 0.1449 | 0.0645 | 0.0338 | 2.8085 |
| Louisville | 4.25 | 0.7039 | 0.4089 | 0.1476 | 0.0307 | 3.2911 |
| Wichita St | 4.34 | 0.4347 | 0.0939 | 0.0363 | 0.017 | 2.5819 |
| Oklahoma | 3.90 | 0.5219 | 0.2513 | 0.0784 | 0.0134 | 2.865 |
| Michigan St | 3.82 | 0.4781 | 0.2222 | 0.0723 | 0.0117 | 2.7843 |
| Utah | 3.92 | 0.2736 | 0.0997 | 0.051 | 0.0098 | 2.4341 |
| North Carolina | 3.77 | 0.2052 | 0.0715 | 0.0124 | 0.0043 | 2.2934 |
| North Carolina St | 3.38 | 0.2961 | 0.1176 | 0.0236 | 0.0029 | 2.4402 |
| West Virginia | 3.64 | 0.0917 | 0.029 | 0.0069 | 0.0021 | 2.1297 |
| Xavier OH | 3.36 | 0.1917 | 0.0404 | 0.0052 | 0.0014 | 2.2387 |
| UCLA | 2.80 | 0.1284 | 0.0221 | 0.0056 | 0.0003 | 2.1564 |