The final eight teams are set in the NCAA Tournament. From the updated model results (method described in this previous post), of the four games in this round, only Kentucky’s match-up with Notre Dame has a high probability of one team winning (Kentucky at .794). The remaining three games are close to toss-ups.
Overall, Kentucky now has almost even odds to win the tournament. If Kentucky were to lose, Wisconsin, and the winner of the Duke and Gonzaga (the model thinks Duke with a .531 probability of winning) game would be next in line to be the favorite.
| Team | Seed | Region | B-T Effect | Prob Final 4 | Prob Final Game | Prob Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 1 | Midwest | 6.489 | 0.794 | 0.590 | 0.477 |
| Wisconsin | 1 | West | 5.372 | 0.599 | 0.213 | 0.133 |
| Duke | 1 | South | 5.123 | 0.531 | 0.375 | 0.120 |
| Gonzaga | 2 | South | 4.977 | 0.469 | 0.321 | 0.104 |
| Arizona | 2 | West | 4.951 | 0.402 | 0.112 | 0.064 |
| Notre Dame | 3 | Midwest | 4.783 | 0.206 | 0.085 | 0.044 |
| Louisville | 4 | East | 4.338 | 0.592 | 0.199 | 0.043 |
| Michigan St | 7 | East | 3.942 | 0.408 | 0.105 | 0.017 |