The latest NCAA Tournament predictions are up and the chaos of the tournament is likely to continue. Although Gonzaga has the highest probability of becoming champion, no team has a greater than 50% chance at making the final four. Benefitting from the losses of Duke and Villanova, Florida now has the second highest chance of making it to the final four, sitting at nearly 41%.
What strikes me is the parity in this year’s top teams. After a relatively un-eventful first round, upsets seemed to happen in the round of 32. Such a result seems due to having a group of very good teams that are capable of beating anyone and another group of teams that aren’t as good. We are now in a spot where only the best teams remain, so expect more upsets to happen for the remainder of the tournament.
The updated model estimates gives the following predictions for the remainder of this year’s NCAA tournament:
| Team | Seed | Region | Elite Eight | Final Four | Final Two | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 1 | West | 0.6756 | 0.4952 | 0.3721 | 0.2655 |
| Kansas | 1 | Midwest | 0.6783 | 0.4074 | 0.2252 | 0.0969 |
| Arizona | 2 | West | 0.8265 | 0.3097 | 0.1729 | 0.0963 |
| Florida | 4 | East | 0.5965 | 0.4154 | 0.1649 | 0.0883 |
| UCLA | 3 | South | 0.5425 | 0.3133 | 0.1756 | 0.0784 |
| Michigan | 7 | Midwest | 0.5773 | 0.2805 | 0.1373 | 0.06 |
| North Carolina | 1 | South | 0.542 | 0.2504 | 0.1266 | 0.0551 |
| Kentucky | 2 | South | 0.4575 | 0.2413 | 0.125 | 0.0539 |
| Wisconsin | 8 | East | 0.4035 | 0.2465 | 0.0932 | 0.0452 |
| West Virginia | 4 | West | 0.3244 | 0.1665 | 0.0839 | 0.0428 |
| Baylor | 3 | East | 0.6485 | 0.2487 | 0.0847 | 0.0355 |
| Butler | 4 | South | 0.458 | 0.195 | 0.0862 | 0.0321 |
| Purdue | 4 | Midwest | 0.3217 | 0.1555 | 0.0639 | 0.0229 |
| Oregon | 3 | Midwest | 0.4227 | 0.1566 | 0.0602 | 0.0194 |
| South Carolina | 7 | East | 0.3515 | 0.0894 | 0.0218 | 0.0065 |
| Xavier | 11 | West | 0.1735 | 0.0286 | 0.0065 | 0.0012 |
For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.