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Latest NCAA Tournament Predictions: Still No Overwhelming Favorite

The latest NCAA Tournament predictions are up and the chaos of the tournament is likely to continue. Although Gonzaga has the highest probability of becoming champion, no team has a greater than 50% chance at making the final four. Benefitting from the losses of Duke and Villanova, Florida now has the second highest chance of making it to the final four, sitting at nearly 41%.

What strikes me is the parity in this year’s top teams. After a relatively un-eventful first round, upsets seemed to happen in the round of 32. Such a result seems due to having a group of very good teams that are capable of beating anyone and another group of teams that aren’t as good. We are now in a spot where only the best teams remain, so expect more upsets to happen for the remainder of the tournament.

The updated model estimates gives the following predictions for the remainder of this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionElite EightFinal FourFinal TwoChampion
Gonzaga1West0.67560.49520.37210.2655
Kansas1Midwest0.67830.40740.22520.0969
Arizona2West0.82650.30970.17290.0963
Florida4East0.59650.41540.16490.0883
UCLA3South0.54250.31330.17560.0784
Michigan7Midwest0.57730.28050.13730.06
North Carolina1South0.5420.25040.12660.0551
Kentucky2South0.45750.24130.1250.0539
Wisconsin8East0.40350.24650.09320.0452
West Virginia4West0.32440.16650.08390.0428
Baylor3East0.64850.24870.08470.0355
Butler4South0.4580.1950.08620.0321
Purdue4Midwest0.32170.15550.06390.0229
Oregon3Midwest0.42270.15660.06020.0194
South Carolina7East0.35150.08940.02180.0065
Xavier11West0.17350.02860.00650.0012

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

 




2017 NCAA Tournament Prediction: Get Ready for Bracket Chaos

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/. To download some of the 10,000 model-generated brackets, please visti http://jonathantemplin.com/sports/2017brackets.

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament:

TeamSeedRegionGames WonRound of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinal 2Champion
Gonzaga1West3.5110.9820.8040.6460.4940.3340.246
Villanova1East2.5410.9430.6870.4150.2650.1390.095
Kentucky2South2.3510.9570.6220.3610.2260.1290.058
Duke2East2.5410.9490.7560.4630.220.0940.054
Saint Mary's (CA)7West2.0710.9060.5110.3780.1530.080.047
UCLA3South2.310.9570.6510.3350.2110.1070.04
Kansas1Midwest2.5210.9740.7380.4380.2170.1180.039
Virginia5East1.7510.8310.4510.230.1350.0640.038
Louisville2Midwest1.9910.9490.4650.2860.1650.0930.036
Arizona2West1.9410.9150.4730.3290.1280.0610.035
Oklahoma State10Midwest1.3210.5690.3220.1990.1250.0720.034
Florida4East1.9410.9630.5270.2380.130.0490.029
North Carolina1South2.0310.8860.5650.3230.1510.0740.026
Iowa State5Midwest1.4310.6710.3820.2050.1010.0530.022
West Virginia4West1.5210.7790.4420.1610.0820.0390.021
Purdue4Midwest1.7210.8720.4680.2180.0980.050.018
Baylor3East1.8710.9010.5450.2610.1060.0370.018
Creighton6Midwest1.1210.5490.3120.1370.0720.0380.015
Butler4South1.4510.7110.3840.2080.0910.040.014
Michigan7Midwest0.8610.4310.2040.1140.060.0330.013
Southern Methodist6East1.3710.730.360.1710.0710.0270.013
Wichita State10South1.3210.7490.3050.1420.0790.0330.01
Oregon3Midwest1.5310.8360.4160.1610.0720.0330.009
Kansas State11aSouth1.510.66270.4630.20.0940.0550.0250.009
Minnesota5South1.0410.5160.2880.1410.0570.0260.008
Notre Dame5West1.5410.8880.4950.1010.0390.0130.007
Maryland6West1.7210.8550.6040.1890.0480.0170.007
Wisconsin8East0.8510.5430.1820.070.0330.0130.007
Rhode Island11Midwest0.8510.4510.2380.0930.040.020.006
Middle Tennessee12South0.9210.4840.2530.1240.0420.0130.004
Miami (FL)8Midwest0.9610.6510.1950.0770.0280.0110.003
Florida State3West1.2310.7870.3130.0930.0220.0080.003
Northwestern8West0.6910.5350.0930.0410.0160.0060.003
Arkansas8South0.910.5210.230.1050.0340.0120.003
Vanderbilt9West0.6310.4650.10.0430.0160.0060.002
Virginia Tech9East0.6510.4570.1210.0430.0160.0060.002
Marquette10East0.8410.5940.1590.0650.0160.0050.002
Nevada12Midwest0.510.3290.1160.0370.0130.0040.001
Cincinnati6South0.4910.350.0910.0320.0140.0030.001
Seton Hall9South0.7710.4790.1940.0740.0190.0050.001
Wake Forest11bSouth0.610.33730.1870.0530.0190.0090.0040.001
Michigan State9Midwest0.4410.3490.0630.020.0040.0010
Vermont13Midwest0.1710.1280.0340.0060.0020.0010
Iona14Midwest0.2110.1650.0350.0080.0020.0010
Jacksonville State15Midwest0.0610.0510.0090.001000
North Carolina Central16aMidwest0.80.770.0250.0050.001000
UC-Davis16bMidwest0.230.20.00100000
Virginia Commonwealth10West0.110.0950.0080.001000
Xavier11West0.2310.1450.0740.0090.00100
Princeton12West0.1610.1120.0380.0050.00100
Bucknell13West0.2510.2210.0250.002000
Florida Gulf Coast14West0.2210.2130.0090000
North Dakota15West0.0910.0850.0070.001000
South Dakota State16West0.0210.0180.0040000
South Carolina7East0.510.4060.0740.0140.00200
Southern California11aEast0.580.45470.0980.0190.0050.00100
Providence11bEast0.790.54530.1720.0550.0170.0040.0010
North Carolina-Wilmington12East0.1910.1690.0140.002000
East Tennessee State13East0.0510.0370.0080.001000
New Mexico State14East0.1210.0990.0210.0030.00100
Troy15East0.0610.0510.010.002000
Mount St. Mary's16aEast0.410.41120.00100000
New Orleans16bEast0.660.58880.0560.0110.001000
Dayton7South0.3510.2510.070.0170.0080.0020
Winthrop13South0.3910.290.0750.0230.0050.0010
Kent State14South0.0510.0430.0040000
Northern Kentucky15South0.0510.0430.0030000
Texas Southern16South0.1310.1140.0110.002000



2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

 




2017 Statistics Workshops: Diagnostic Modeling and Multilevel Longitudinal

Learn from instructors who wrote the book(s) on the topics! All workshops are given in a relaxed atmosphere with ample time for one-on-one interaction with the instructors.

Stats on the Beach is a workshop series taught by Lesa Hoffman and Jonathan Templin (co-founders of AnalyticAble LLC). In 2017 we are offering two workshops, located in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:
  • Diagnostic Measurement (May 22-25, by Jonathan Templin)
  • Introduction to Longitudinal Multilevel Models (May 30-June 2, by Lesa Hoffman)
Our format for each includes separate morning and late afternoon sessions, with a long mid-day break so you can let the content sink in (or meet with us individually) while enjoying the beach. For more information, please visit our website: StatsOnTheBeach.com
Please send a link to this announcement to anyone who might be interested, and let us know if you have any questions!



R Functions for Estimation of the LCDM in Mplus

The R functions are used to build, run, and parse Mplus syntax for estimation of the LCDM. The functions to build the R syntax were created by Andre Rupp and Oliver Wilhelm with additions for parsing and computing attribute reliability contributed by Jonathan Templin

The example will run if all files are put into the same folder.




An Introduction to Clustering and Classification Methods (EPSY 905; Spring 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 14 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Vermunt & Magidson (2002)
  • McCutcheon (2002)
Homework



Principal Components Analysis and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring, 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 13 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Johnson & Wichern (2002), Chs. 8 & 9
Homework



Mixed Models Incorporate Repeated Measures and Multivariate ANOVA (EPSY 905; Spring 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 12 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Maxwell & Delaney (2004), Ch. 12-15
  • Wright (1998)
Homework



Missing Data (EPSY 905; Spring 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 11 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Enders (2010), Ch. 4, 7, 8, 9
Homework



Introduction to Bayesian Analysis/MCMC Estimation (EPSY 905; Spring 2016)

Multivariate Analysis (EPSY 905; Spring 2016): Week 10 Materials


In-Class Lecture Materials:
In-Class Lecture Videos and Notes:
Readings to be completed after this lecture:
  • Enders (2010), Ch. 6
Homework