2017 NCAA Tournament Prediction: Get Ready for Bracket Chaos

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2017 NCAA Tournament Prediction: Get Ready for Bracket Chaos

March 13, 2017 | Jonathan | My Posts, Sports Prediction

Just in time for the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I have put together a new statistical model to assess team strength and make predictions about the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago I used a well known model to make predictions about the NCAA Tournament, with limited success. The upcoming tournament is the first time new model has been used so this year is essentially a live test case.

For more information, please visit my predictions main page at http://jonathantemplin.com/2017-ncaa-mens-basketball-predictions/.

The model gives the following predictions for this year’s NCAA tournament:

Team	Seed	Region	Games Won	Round of 64	Round of 32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Final 2	Champion
Gonzaga	1	West	3.51	1	0.982	0.804	0.646	0.494	0.334	0.246
Villanova	1	East	2.54	1	0.943	0.687	0.415	0.265	0.139	0.095
Kentucky	2	South	2.35	1	0.957	0.622	0.361	0.226	0.129	0.058
Duke	2	East	2.54	1	0.949	0.756	0.463	0.22	0.094	0.054
Saint Mary's (CA)	7	West	2.07	1	0.906	0.511	0.378	0.153	0.08	0.047
UCLA	3	South	2.3	1	0.957	0.651	0.335	0.211	0.107	0.04
Kansas	1	Midwest	2.52	1	0.974	0.738	0.438	0.217	0.118	0.039
Virginia	5	East	1.75	1	0.831	0.451	0.23	0.135	0.064	0.038
Louisville	2	Midwest	1.99	1	0.949	0.465	0.286	0.165	0.093	0.036
Arizona	2	West	1.94	1	0.915	0.473	0.329	0.128	0.061	0.035
Oklahoma State	10	Midwest	1.32	1	0.569	0.322	0.199	0.125	0.072	0.034
Florida	4	East	1.94	1	0.963	0.527	0.238	0.13	0.049	0.029
North Carolina	1	South	2.03	1	0.886	0.565	0.323	0.151	0.074	0.026
Iowa State	5	Midwest	1.43	1	0.671	0.382	0.205	0.101	0.053	0.022
West Virginia	4	West	1.52	1	0.779	0.442	0.161	0.082	0.039	0.021
Purdue	4	Midwest	1.72	1	0.872	0.468	0.218	0.098	0.05	0.018
Baylor	3	East	1.87	1	0.901	0.545	0.261	0.106	0.037	0.018
Creighton	6	Midwest	1.12	1	0.549	0.312	0.137	0.072	0.038	0.015
Butler	4	South	1.45	1	0.711	0.384	0.208	0.091	0.04	0.014
Michigan	7	Midwest	0.86	1	0.431	0.204	0.114	0.06	0.033	0.013
Southern Methodist	6	East	1.37	1	0.73	0.36	0.171	0.071	0.027	0.013
Wichita State	10	South	1.32	1	0.749	0.305	0.142	0.079	0.033	0.01
Oregon	3	Midwest	1.53	1	0.836	0.416	0.161	0.072	0.033	0.009
Kansas State	11a	South	1.51	0.6627	0.463	0.2	0.094	0.055	0.025	0.009
Minnesota	5	South	1.04	1	0.516	0.288	0.141	0.057	0.026	0.008
Notre Dame	5	West	1.54	1	0.888	0.495	0.101	0.039	0.013	0.007
Maryland	6	West	1.72	1	0.855	0.604	0.189	0.048	0.017	0.007
Wisconsin	8	East	0.85	1	0.543	0.182	0.07	0.033	0.013	0.007
Rhode Island	11	Midwest	0.85	1	0.451	0.238	0.093	0.04	0.02	0.006
Middle Tennessee	12	South	0.92	1	0.484	0.253	0.124	0.042	0.013	0.004
Miami (FL)	8	Midwest	0.96	1	0.651	0.195	0.077	0.028	0.011	0.003
Florida State	3	West	1.23	1	0.787	0.313	0.093	0.022	0.008	0.003
Northwestern	8	West	0.69	1	0.535	0.093	0.041	0.016	0.006	0.003
Arkansas	8	South	0.9	1	0.521	0.23	0.105	0.034	0.012	0.003
Vanderbilt	9	West	0.63	1	0.465	0.1	0.043	0.016	0.006	0.002
Virginia Tech	9	East	0.65	1	0.457	0.121	0.043	0.016	0.006	0.002
Marquette	10	East	0.84	1	0.594	0.159	0.065	0.016	0.005	0.002
Nevada	12	Midwest	0.5	1	0.329	0.116	0.037	0.013	0.004	0.001
Cincinnati	6	South	0.49	1	0.35	0.091	0.032	0.014	0.003	0.001
Seton Hall	9	South	0.77	1	0.479	0.194	0.074	0.019	0.005	0.001
Wake Forest	11b	South	0.61	0.3373	0.187	0.053	0.019	0.009	0.004	0.001
Michigan State	9	Midwest	0.44	1	0.349	0.063	0.02	0.004	0.001	0
Vermont	13	Midwest	0.17	1	0.128	0.034	0.006	0.002	0.001	0
Iona	14	Midwest	0.21	1	0.165	0.035	0.008	0.002	0.001	0
Jacksonville State	15	Midwest	0.06	1	0.051	0.009	0.001	0	0	0
North Carolina Central	16a	Midwest	0.8	0.77	0.025	0.005	0.001	0	0	0
UC-Davis	16b	Midwest	0.23	0.2	0.001	0	0	0	0	0
Virginia Commonwealth	10	West	0.1	1	0.095	0.008	0.001	0	0	0
Xavier	11	West	0.23	1	0.145	0.074	0.009	0.001	0	0
Princeton	12	West	0.16	1	0.112	0.038	0.005	0.001	0	0
Bucknell	13	West	0.25	1	0.221	0.025	0.002	0	0	0
Florida Gulf Coast	14	West	0.22	1	0.213	0.009	0	0	0	0
North Dakota	15	West	0.09	1	0.085	0.007	0.001	0	0	0
South Dakota State	16	West	0.02	1	0.018	0.004	0	0	0	0
South Carolina	7	East	0.5	1	0.406	0.074	0.014	0.002	0	0
Southern California	11a	East	0.58	0.4547	0.098	0.019	0.005	0.001	0	0
Providence	11b	East	0.79	0.5453	0.172	0.055	0.017	0.004	0.001	0
North Carolina-Wilmington	12	East	0.19	1	0.169	0.014	0.002	0	0	0
East Tennessee State	13	East	0.05	1	0.037	0.008	0.001	0	0	0
New Mexico State	14	East	0.12	1	0.099	0.021	0.003	0.001	0	0
Troy	15	East	0.06	1	0.051	0.01	0.002	0	0	0
Mount St. Mary's	16a	East	0.41	0.4112	0.001	0	0	0	0	0
New Orleans	16b	East	0.66	0.5888	0.056	0.011	0.001	0	0	0
Dayton	7	South	0.35	1	0.251	0.07	0.017	0.008	0.002	0
Winthrop	13	South	0.39	1	0.29	0.075	0.023	0.005	0.001	0
Kent State	14	South	0.05	1	0.043	0.004	0	0	0	0
Northern Kentucky	15	South	0.05	1	0.043	0.003	0	0	0	0
Texas Southern	16	South	0.13	1	0.114	0.011	0.002	0	0	0

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